Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:44:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x58c5…a829 crypto 34 markets active 5d ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$179 (-51%) realized −$179 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate47%16W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days−$180
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$168
sports 19% +$17
crypto 18% −$26
world 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +25.9% +13.9% 50% 50% +12.2%
≤30d 34 -6.8% -15.7% 47% 38% -59.2%
≤90d 34 -6.8% -15.7% 47% 38% -59.2%
all 34 -6.8% -15.7% 47% 38% -59.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 38% -59.2%
10% -23.7% 38% -63.1%
15% -31.1% 32% -66.7%
20% -37.9% 26% -69.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -55% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -55% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$12 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$179
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses16 / 18
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage19d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +41%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $10 $0 -3%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 30 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 29 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 29 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 29 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 28 $1 +$2 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 28 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 28 $1 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 28 $2 −$1 -59%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 28 $20 $0 -2%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 26 $173 −$150 -87%
Will Saint-Etienne win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $20 +$15 +73%
Will Paderborn win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 25 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 25 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 25 $1 +$1 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 25 $1 +$1 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 25 $1 +$1 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 25 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 25 $1 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 25 $1 +$2 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 25 $11 −$10 -95%
Will Torino FC vs. Juventus FC end in a draw? May 24 $3 $0 +4%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $15 −$15 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 70¢ $10 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $10 6d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 58¢ $3 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $15 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 20d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? BUY No 0¢ $3 20d
Thunder vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 59¢ $20 20d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 59¢ $20 21d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 42¢ $153 22d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 41¢ $19 22d
Will Saint-Etienne win on 2026-05-26? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 22d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 22d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 63¢ $10 22d
Will Paderborn win on 2026-05-25? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 64 history records