Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:02:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
58 0x58c5…610f sports 64 markets active 5h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$611 (+0%) realized +$583 · open +$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate63%40W / 23L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,915per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$89est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$316now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$469
7 days−$951
14 days−$408
30 days+$380
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% +$130
other 5% +$355
sports 5% +$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -16.3% -24.3% 40% 40% -28.2%
≤30d 50 +6.1% -4.0% 54% 50% -6.8%
≤90d 50 +6.1% -4.0% 54% 50% -6.8%
all 63 +4.9% -5.1% 63% 40% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.1% 40% -9.1%
10% -14.2% 40% -17.8%
15% -22.5% 40% -25.8%
20% -30.1% 37% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,046) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +16% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$122 vs −$190 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$316
Realized+$583
Unrealized+$28
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses40 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$89
Open positions1
Markets (closed)63 / 64
History coverage159d
Avg bet$1,915
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 54¢ 62¢ $200 $228 +$28 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,046 +$975 +93%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,016 −$1,000 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $306 −$300 -98%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Set Handicap: Maria (-1.5) vs Yastremska (+1.5) Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $102 +$98 +97%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $101 +$58 +57%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $505 −$500 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $203 −$200 -99%
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Set Handicap: Paul (-1.5) vs Svajda (+1.5) Jun 15 $102 +$98 +97%
Nottingham 2: Alastair Gray vs Tristan Schoolkate Jun 15 $101 −$12 -12%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $102 +$103 +101%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $203 +$241 +119%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $58 +$52 +89%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $102 +$136 +134%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $101 −$100 -99%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $101 +$80 +79%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 08 $203 +$159 +78%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $102 +$121 +119%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 07 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $1,274 +$131 +10%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $102 −$100 -98%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $101 −$100 -99%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $102 +$121 +119%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $102 +$103 +101%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $102 +$126 +124%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $101 +$63 +62%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $101 +$98 +96%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $101 +$48 +48%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $101 +$95 +93%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $101 −$100 -99%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western Jun 02 $101 +$71 +70%
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Wester Jun 02 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Alex Palou win the 2026 IndyCar Detroit Grand Prix? Jun 01 $708 +$408 +58%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $660 −$650 -98%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 31 $104 −$102 -98%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels - Game 3 Winner May 30 $102 −$100 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $1,012 +$683 +67%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif May 30 $101 +$53 +52%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $102 +$454 +444%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $101 +$46 +46%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 25 $101 +$65 +65%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 25 $1,954 +$61 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $1,046 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $1,016 7h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $306 7h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 53¢ $101 12h
Set Handicap: Maria (-1.5) vs Yastremska (+1.5) BUY Yastremska 67¢ $101 18h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Alejandro Tabilo BUY Alejandro Tabilo 52¢ $101 41h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Brandon Nakashima 63¢ $101 43h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $505 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $203 2d
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets BUY McCartney Kessler 54¢ $101 2d
Set Handicap: Paul (-1.5) vs Svajda (+1.5) BUY Paul 50¢ $102 2d
Nottingham 2: Alastair Gray vs Tristan Schoolkate BUY Tristan Schoolkate 57¢ $101 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $203 3d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 52¢ $58 3d
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 41¢ $102 5d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $102 6d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $102 6d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $102 6d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $102 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $102 6d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 54¢ $203 6d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY Global Esports 70¢ $101 7d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage BUY NRG 63¢ $101 7d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Monte 55¢ $101 8d
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta BUY Leviatán Esports 49¢ $102 9d
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta BUY Leviatán Esports 64¢ $101 9d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 45¢ $102 9d
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Cloud9 29¢ $102 10d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 79¢ $273 10d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,002 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $315.50 · official $315.50 (match) · 127 history records