Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:14:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
58 0x58c8…e4ed crypto 335 markets active 16h ago coverage 10d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 10d only
✗ bot/MM pace (320 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$403 (+11%) realized +$424 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate43%141W / 186L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day319.6pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$56
7 days+$243
14 days+$330
30 days+$330
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% −$66
sports 47% +$246
other 5% +$148
tech 1% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (320 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 251 -14.0% -22.2% 44% 31% -1.3%
≤30d 327 -12.5% -20.8% 43% 31% -1.2%
≤90d 327 -12.5% -20.8% 43% 31% -1.2%
all 327 -12.5% -20.8% 43% 31% -1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover319.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.8% 31% -1.2%
10% ← realistic here -28.4% 26% -10.7%
15% -35.3% 22% -19.3%
20% -41.7% 19% -27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$5 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized+$424
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses141 / 186
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions8
Markets (closed)327 / 335
History coverage10d ⚠
Avg bet$11
Trades / day319.6
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 327 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? Yes 12¢ 60¢ $13 $66 +$53 (+391%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? No 49¢ 44¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-8%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No 35¢ 27¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-23%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? Yes 9¢ 3¢ $15 $6 −$9 (-63%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? Yes 9¢ 16¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+83%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? No 67¢ 40¢ $4 $2 −$1 (-40%)
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? No 90¢ 97¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 92¢ 88¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? No 96¢ 84¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 15-21? Yes 15¢ 1¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-95%)
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? Yes 41¢ 3¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 17? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? Jun 18 $13 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$8 +108%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 15-21? Jun 17 $5 +$4 +92%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $55 −$55 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +86%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $166 +$112 +68%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $20 −$7 -34%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +97%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +114%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu Jun 15 $3 $0 +7%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 15 $1 −$1 -80%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 15 $20 −$1 -7%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Jun 15 $10 $0 -4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 15 $6 +$1 +9%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za Jun 15 $1 $0 -6%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $65 +$61 +93%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $21 −$5 -24%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 15 $9 −$2 -22%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $12 $0 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $25 +$9 +37%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $14 +$1 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 15 $2 $0 -5%
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $21 −$10 -46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $22 +$15 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $25 −$21 -82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $13 +$14 +109%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +114%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? BUY No 67¢ $2 15h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 15h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? BUY No 90¢ $2 23h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? BUY No 66¢ $2 23h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $13 23h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 24h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 24h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $2 36h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 36h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 53¢ $2 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $2 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $2 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $2 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $2 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $2 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $2 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $2 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $2 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $2 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $2 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $2 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $2 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $2 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $2 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $2 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $2 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $2 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $2 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.76 · official $97.24 (match) · 3500 history records