Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:17:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
58 0x58cb…3cd6 other 126 markets active 2h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$759 (+15%) realized +$737 · open +$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate46%57W / 66L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$263now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$45
7 days−$50
14 days−$3
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$52
politics 32% +$508
world 14% +$24
sports 6% +$67
crypto 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -75.0% -77.4% 0% 0% -69.8%
≤30d 24 +1.5% -8.2% 17% 17% -11.6%
≤90d 81 +17.1% +6.0% 40% 32% +1.4%
all 123 +20.4% +9.0% 46% 38% +2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.0% 38% +2.7%
10% -1.5% 26% -7.1%
15% -11.0% 22% -16.1%
20% -19.7% 17% -24.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late +20% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$7 · ×2.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.39 per $1 lost it wins $2.39
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$263
Realized+$737
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses57 / 66
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)123 / 126
History coverage119d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 70¢ 80¢ $131 $151 +$20 (+15%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? No 91¢ 90¢ $74 $73 −$1 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $36 $40 +$4 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $10 −$7 -67%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $9 −$9 -97%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $3 −$3 -98%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $36 −$21 -57%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $7 −$5 -70%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $8 −$5 -59%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $11 +$69 +655%
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16 Jun 15 $1 $0 -33%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $95 −$22 -23%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $61 −$1 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $74 −$2 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $12 −$1 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in May 2026? May 31 $78 +$39 +50%
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in May 2026? May 31 $27 −$6 -20%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 29 $15 −$4 -26%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $144 −$57 -40%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $152 −$4 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $6 −$2 -25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $235 +$34 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $84 +$11 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $60 −$19 -32%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 24 $42 −$9 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $42 −$4 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $24 +$12 +51%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 24 $115 +$57 +50%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $19 −$6 -32%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 22 $26 −$11 -44%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, May 19 $68 +$2 +4%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 1 May 19 $23 +$12 +52%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 42 million views on day 2 May 18 $4 −$2 -44%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 1 May 18 $47 −$5 -11%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 17 $12 −$5 -44%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15 May 15 $16 +$83 +517%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15, 2 May 15 $61 +$108 +177%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 13 $108 +$20 +19%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 13 $62 +$17 +28%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 12 $56 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 5 to May 12 May 11 $36 +$6 +16%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from May 5 to May 12 May 10 $73 −$11 -16%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 1 to May 8, May 08 $43 +$73 +168%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 06 $50 +$14 +27%
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from April 28 to May 5 May 03 $42 −$33 -78%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 03 $16 +$2 +12%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? May 01 $16 −$1 -6%
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from April 24 to May 1 May 01 $77 +$13 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 01 $12 +$46 +398%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 30 $59 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 30 $22 +$9 +40%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from April 24 to May Apr 28 $27 −$3 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 70¢ $33 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 70¢ $99 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 91¢ $74 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 22¢ $3 38h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 1¢ $0 38h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 16¢ $3 38h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $10 38h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $9 38h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 17¢ $16 39h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $6 40h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $30 41h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 45h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 45h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 45h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 5d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $8 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 6d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $80 7d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $11 7d
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16 SELL Yes 3¢ $1 8d
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16 BUY Yes 4¢ $1 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $74 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $95 9d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $17 10d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $19 13d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 13d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $37 17d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $28 17d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $22 17d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $32 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $262.63 · official $262.63 (match) · 608 history records