Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:16:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x58ce…e206 sports 121 markets active 1h ago coverage 172d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$938 (-2%) realized −$949 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate53%64W / 56L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$367per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$571est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$600
14 days−$472
30 days−$910
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$795
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 23 +6.0% -4.1% 48% 48% -18.1%
≤90d 62 -1.2% -10.6% 48% 44% -21.0%
all 120 +12.1% +1.4% 53% 48% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.4% 48% -10.8%
10% -8.3% 41% -19.3%
15% -17.1% 35% -27.1%
20% -25.3% 30% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +27% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$223 vs −$269 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$949
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses64 / 56
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$571
Open positions1
Markets (closed)120 / 121
History coverage172d
Avg bet$367
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 82¢ 100¢ $50 $61 +$11 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $611 −$600 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $793 −$71 -9%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $102 +$228 +223%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $271 −$270 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $505 +$241 +48%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $133 +$55 +42%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 02 $51 −$50 -99%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $219 +$281 +129%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner May 31 $1,522 −$1,500 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner May 31 $988 −$984 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 30 $212 −$4 -2%
LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 29 $3 $0 +14%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $895 +$1,105 +124%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 29 $765 −$215 -28%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner May 28 $101 +$48 +48%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 27 $527 +$651 +124%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 26 $306 −$300 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 25 $496 +$1,144 +230%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming - Game 4 Winner May 24 $405 +$285 +70%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 23 $726 −$720 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports - Game 2 Winner May 23 $200 −$200 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner May 22 $184 +$66 +36%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Q May 21 $87 −$85 -99%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Q May 20 $67 +$83 +124%
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner May 17 $116 +$104 +89%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner May 16 $50 +$11 +23%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner May 16 $101 +$58 +57%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner May 16 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner May 13 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 12 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 1 Winner May 10 $230 −$230 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 10 $155 +$245 +158%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs LNG Esports - Game 1 Winner May 08 $559 −$548 -98%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner May 08 $180 +$320 +178%
LoL: Team WE vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 06 $215 −$213 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner May 06 $204 −$47 -23%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner May 01 $985 +$813 +82%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 20 $915 −$906 -99%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 1 Winner Apr 20 $126 +$294 +232%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Oh My God - Game 2 Winner Apr 20 $140 −$137 -98%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner Apr 19 $843 −$831 -99%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 13 $1,390 −$1,382 -99%
LoL: Oh My God vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 12 $678 −$670 -99%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner Apr 11 $630 −$623 -99%
LoL: LNG Esports vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Apr 10 $1,241 +$75 +6%
LoL: LNG Esports vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 10 $820 +$196 +24%
LoL: LNG Esports vs EDward Gaming - Game 1 Winner Apr 10 $395 −$108 -27%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 1 Winner Apr 09 $205 +$20 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 82¢ $50 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 40¢ $611 6d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 20¢ $205 7d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 18¢ $179 7d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster 32¢ $283 7d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster 46¢ $415 7d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 20¢ $102 7d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 23¢ $307 7d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 30¢ $102 8d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Anyones Legend 21¢ $54 12d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Anyones Legend 29¢ $218 12d
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports 67¢ $505 13d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 70¢ $133 14d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $101 16d
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 51¢ $51 18d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner BUY Team WE 43¢ $219 19d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY JD Gaming 50¢ $1,522 20d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports 49¢ $646 20d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports 49¢ $32 20d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports 49¢ $10 20d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports 49¢ $86 20d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports 49¢ $209 20d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports 47¢ $4 20d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 1 Winner SELL BNK FEARX 20¢ $4 21d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 1 Winner SELL BNK FEARX 20¢ $31 21d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 1 Winner SELL BNK FEARX 20¢ $2 21d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 1 Winner SELL BNK FEARX 20¢ $15 21d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 1 Winner SELL BNK FEARX 20¢ $1 21d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 1 Winner SELL BNK FEARX 20¢ $1 21d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 1 Winner SELL BNK FEARX 20¢ $10 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.95 · official $60.95 (match) · 674 history records