Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:24:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x58ce…57c4 world 255 markets active 1h ago coverage 80d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 80d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,180 (-6%) realized −$5,140 · open −$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate12%27W / 195L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$365per market
Trades / day42.5pace
Fees−$161est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$87
7 days−$87
14 days−$87
30 days−$279
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% −$1,212
politics 15% −$440
other 14% −$1,566
sports 7% −$305
tech 3% −$554
finance 2% +$24
culture 1% −$82
economics 0% −$7
weather 0% −$4
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -44.0% -49.3% 0% 0% -39.5%
≤30d 49 -11.6% -20.1% 14% 4% -22.3%
≤90d 222 -4.2% -13.3% 12% 4% -15.0%
all 222 -4.2% -13.3% 12% 4% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.3% 4% -15.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.6% 4% -23.1%
15% -29.2% 4% -30.6%
20% -36.1% 3% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -24% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$24 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$5,140
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses27 / 195
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$161
Open positions33
Markets (closed)222 / 255
History coverage80d ⚠
Avg bet$365
Trades / day42.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 222 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 82¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+20%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 66¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+49%)
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? No 53¢ 78¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+46%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 70¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+24%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 29¢ 72¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+150%)
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes 62¢ 55¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-3%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 68¢ 88¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+28%)
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30? No 59¢ 92¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+57%)
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? Down 52¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$39 (-99%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 63¢ 71¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+13%)
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Down 42¢ 32¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-25%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 22¢ 21¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-3%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 67¢ 78¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+16%)
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? No 36¢ 45¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+25%)
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? Yes 39¢ 24¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-38%)
Will Cursor be acquired before 2027? Yes 49¢ 88¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+80%)
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? No 28¢ 38¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+34%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 65¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+53%)
Will Marine Tondelier be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 29¢ 15¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-48%)
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes 57¢ 36¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-38%)
Will Fuerza Popular (FP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election? Yes 86¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+16%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 65¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+53%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No 25¢ 34¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+34%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 37¢ 29¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 89 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $21 −$3 -16%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 15 $15 −$2 -15%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $19 −$7 -37%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $54 −$34 -63%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $54 $0 -1%
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 3 Jun 15 $38 −$3 -8%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 14 $39 −$4 -10%
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Jun 14 $69 −$7 -10%
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be between 1% and 1 May 28 $17 −$5 -27%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 27 $99 +$2 +2%
Will Trump and Putin not meet? May 27 $11 $0 -2%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? May 27 $14 $0 -4%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele May 26 $15 $0 -3%
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026? May 26 $42 $0 +0%
Will Micron Q3 NAND revenue be above $8.0B? May 26 $9 −$3 -34%
Özgür Özel arrested by June 30? May 26 $10 −$5 -53%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $32 $0 -2%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? May 25 $16 −$1 -7%
Will Trump announce Aaron Lukas as the next Director of National Intel May 25 $11 $0 -2%
Florentino Perez out as Real Madrid president by December 31, 2026? May 24 $120 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal before ceasefire ends? May 24 $5 $0 +6%
Will Trump announce Elise Stefanik as the next Director of National In May 24 $18 −$1 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23? May 24 $89 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 24 $70 −$4 -6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 24 $36 −$10 -26%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 24 $12 −$2 -22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 24 $72 +$6 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? May 23 $22 −$16 -70%
Will Trump announce Richard Grenell as the next Director of National I May 23 $18 −$1 -7%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31? May 23 $12 −$1 -12%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31? May 23 $59 +$1 +2%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31? May 22 $58 $0 -0%
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by September 30? May 22 $18 −$2 -11%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? May 22 $12 $0 -4%
Chud the Builder convicted of attempted murder? May 22 $18 −$1 -7%
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a success May 21 $34 −$14 -42%
Will OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026? May 21 $17 −$3 -20%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? May 20 $18 −$3 -14%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? May 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $975B by June 30? May 19 $14 −$7 -50%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? May 19 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Grey Target by Johns sell for $30M or more? May 18 $18 −$18 -99%
Will Danaïde by Brancusi sell for $95M or more? May 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in May? May 17 $268 −$69 -26%
Will Radu Burnete be the next Prime Minister of Romania? May 17 $18 −$3 -19%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 17 $19 +$1 +4%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of May 17 $183 −$27 -15%
Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 19? May 17 $88 +$8 +9%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 14 $17 −$1 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $17 59m
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $18 1h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? SELL Down 37¢ $66 1h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? SELL Down 37¢ $5 1h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? SELL No 55¢ $13 2h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? BUY No 65¢ $15 2h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 3h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $14 3h
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa SELL Yes 45¢ $9 3h
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY Yes 47¢ $1 3h
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY Yes 47¢ $1 3h
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY Yes 47¢ $1 3h
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY Yes 47¢ $7 3h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $30 4h
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 19¢ $12 4h
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 99¢ $57 4h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? SELL Up 92¢ $73 5h
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 61¢ $34 6h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? SELL Down 46¢ $2 7h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? SELL Down 46¢ $2 7h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? SELL Down 46¢ $2 7h
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $19 9h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? BUY Up 45¢ $36 10h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Down 42¢ $28 10h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $8 14h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $18 14h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? BUY Down 52¢ $40 14h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Down 42¢ $1 14h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Down 42¢ $8 14h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Down 42¢ $8 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.29 · official $1.74 · 3500 history records