Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:59:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
58 0x58cf…6b6f sports 68 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$128 (+3%) realized +$229 · open −$101
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR78%break-even
Win rate78%43W / 12L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$91
7 days+$305
14 days+$735
30 days+$735
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$679
other 43% −$76
crypto 2% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +78%
net ROI/market (all)+10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +13.2% +2.4% 76% 76% +0.6%
≤30d 55 +22.2% +10.6% 78% 78% +9.3%
≤90d 55 +22.2% +10.6% 78% 78% +9.3%
all 55 +22.2% +10.6% 78% 78% +9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.6% 78% +9.3%
10% +0.0% 71% -1.2%
15% -9.7% 49% -10.7%
20% -18.5% 33% -19.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +48% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$60 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.02 per $1 lost it wins $2.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized+$229
Unrealized−$101
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses43 / 12
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions3
Markets (closed)55 / 68
History coverage11d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 52¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Croatia vs. Ghana: Croatia O/U 1.5 AND Croatia to score first vs. Ghan Jun 27 $20 +$31 +156%
England to win the second half? Jun 27 $50 +$21 +42%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $50 +$9 +17%
England to score first vs. Panama? Jun 27 $50 +$10 +20%
Panama vs. England: England 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $50 +$11 +23%
Panama vs. England: England O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $101 +$24 +24%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $51 −$50 -98%
England leading at halftime? Jun 27 $50 −$50 -99%
Panama vs. England: England O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $100 +$15 +14%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $101 +$63 +62%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $101 +$24 +24%
France to win the second half? Jun 26 $20 +$31 +152%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $51 +$36 +70%
Norway vs. France: France O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $50 +$21 +42%
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $51 +$30 +60%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $51 −$51 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $51 −$51 -100%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $101 +$31 +31%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $50 +$15 +31%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Belgium to score first vs. IR Iran? Jun 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 25 $151 −$151 -100%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $101 +$48 +48%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $51 +$37 +73%
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? AND Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 23 $50 +$23 +46%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $50 +$12 +24%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $101 +$82 +81%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $101 +$53 +52%
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 AND Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U Jun 23 $76 +$41 +54%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $20 +$16 +79%
France leading at halftime? Jun 23 $50 +$15 +31%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $50 +$24 +48%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $101 +$74 +73%
Argentina to score first vs. Austria? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-0 Jun 22 $50 +$23 +45%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$46 +46%
Spain to win the second half? Jun 21 $101 +$24 +24%
Spain leading at halftime? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$20 +39%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 +$12 +12%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$33 +66%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 AND Netherlands to score first vs. Swe Jun 20 $51 +$39 +76%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 AND Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1. Jun 20 $102 +$146 +144%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$25 +50%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Canad Jun 19 $51 +$51 +101%
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $50 +$16 +32%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $50 +$16 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 49m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goal BUY $5 15h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 15h
Portugal leading at halftime? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY 35¢ $20 15h
Panama vs. England: England 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 81¢ $50 15h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $50 15h
England to win the second half? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 15h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 15h
Panama vs. England: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $101 15h
England to score first vs. Panama? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 15h
Panama vs. England: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $51 15h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Croatia O/U 1.5 AND Croatia to score first vs. Ghan BUY 38¢ $20 15h
Panama vs. England: England 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND England leading at ha BUY 33¢ $50 15h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 AND Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 AND Sp BUY 26¢ $50 29h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 29h
France to win the second half? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 30h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Over 10¢ $15 30h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06- BUY 32¢ $25 32h
Norway vs. France: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $50 33h
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $51 33h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $51 33h
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 1.5 AND United States to BUY 50¢ $50 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $50 2d
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 87¢ $100 2d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 2d
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $51 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $51 3d
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.94 · official $98.94 (match) · 119 history records