Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:59:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
58 0x58d3…1293 weather 219 markets active 0h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$23 (-0%) realized −$22 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%210W / 1L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$244per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$975now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$8
14 days+$26
30 days−$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 87% −$47
other 9% +$8
sports 3% +$13
tech 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 116 -0.6% -10.1% 99% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 211 -0.3% -9.8% 100% 0% -9.6%
all 211 -0.3% -9.8% 100% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$103 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$975
Realized−$22
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses210 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)211 / 219
History coverage60d
Avg bet$244
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 211 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $221 $221 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $158 $158 +$0 (+0%)
Will Caleb Wilson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? No 100¢ 100¢ $150 $150 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $123 $123 +$0 (+0%)
Will AJ Dybantsa be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? No 100¢ 100¢ $105 $105 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 23? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $76 $76 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $42 $42 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 22? Jun 22 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 22? Jun 22 $449 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? Jun 22 $110 $0 +0%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? Jun 22 $150 $0 +0%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $973 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 20? Jun 20 $213 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $293 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $102 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C or higher on June 19? Jun 19 $123 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $169 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $170 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C or higher on June 19? Jun 19 $47 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on June 19? Jun 19 $81 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $83 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $170 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 18? Jun 18 $300 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 18? Jun 18 $500 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $270 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $699 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $136 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $128 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 16 Jun 16 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $335 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $149 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $400 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $149 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $219 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $372 $0 +0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $539 +$11 +2%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $215 $0 +0%
Will Dylan Harper win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $753 +$1 +0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $83 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $75 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $59 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $300 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $36 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $76 21m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $158 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $221 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $123 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $42 1h
Will AJ Dybantsa be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY No 99¢ $5 5h
Will AJ Dybantsa be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY No 100¢ $100 5h
Will Caleb Wilson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY No 100¢ $150 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $110 26h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $100 26h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $100 26h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $103 26h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $346 26h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $100 30h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $150 35h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 100¢ $973 40h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $213 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $68 3d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 34°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $102 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $6 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $15 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $293 3d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $83 4d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $150 4d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $20 4d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $150 4d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $81 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $975.01 · official $975.13 (match) · 521 history records