Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T04:57:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

58
0x58d4…5e11
sports · 7 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$45 +56%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$46 · open −$6
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$14
Realized+$46
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses5 / 0
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage2d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 2 History 5 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days+$46
14 days+$46
30 days+$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Under 55¢ 55¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 57¢ 22¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$14 +134%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $10 +$6 +55%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 +$15 +74%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 63% +$34
other 25% +$5
crypto 12% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 1h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $10 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 96¢ $16 5h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $10 5h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 61¢ $10 5h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $10 29h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 61¢ $10 29h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $10 38h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 38h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 45h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +80%
net ROI/market (all)+58.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +75.2% +58.5% 100% 80% +58.5%
≤30d 5 +75.2% +58.5% 100% 80% +58.5%
≤90d 5 +75.2% +58.5% 100% 80% +58.5%
all 5 +75.2% +58.5% 100% 80% +58.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +58.5% 80% +58.5%
10% +43.3% 80% +43.4%
15% +29.5% 80% +29.5%
20% +16.8% 80% +16.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.86 · official $13.86 (match) · 16 history records