Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:14:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
58 0x58d7…75c8 other 66 markets active 2h ago coverage 593d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$74 (+0%) realized +$74 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate27%17W / 46L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$327per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$191now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 64% −$14
politics 20% −$11
other 9% −$9
sports 2% +$105
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% +$1
culture 1% $0
world 1% +$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -33.4% -39.8% 0% 0% -15.2%
≤30d 13 -7.8% -16.6% 15% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 50 +10.6% +0.1% 30% 20% -7.6%
all 63 +8.3% -2.1% 27% 16% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.1% 16% -9.2%
10% -11.4% 16% -17.9%
15% -20.0% 14% -25.8%
20% -27.8% 14% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$2 · ×4.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.83 per $1 lost it wins $1.83
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

593d coverage
Net worth$191
Realized+$74
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses17 / 46
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)63 / 66
History coverage593d
Avg bet$327
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $107 $107 +$0 (+0%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $35 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $25 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $21 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $26 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 05 $42 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 05 $78 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 28 $35 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $194 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 26 $31 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $29 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 21 $31 $0 -0%
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $24 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $36 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $174 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $329 $0 -0%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 18 $6 +$10 +172%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 12 $151 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $158 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 08 $162 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $163 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 06 $151 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 30 $321 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 26 $167 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $160 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $316 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 25 $167 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Apr 24 $155 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $152 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $158 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 16 $156 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $166 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $165 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $154 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $172 $0 -0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $16 −$16 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $10 +$8 +79%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $12 +$9 +72%
Rockets vs. Suns Apr 09 $14 +$13 +93%
Predators vs. Kings Apr 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 07 $10 +$6 +64%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $16 +$2 +10%
Penguins vs. Islanders Apr 06 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 06 $24 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? Apr 06 $48 $0 +1%
Devils vs. Rangers Apr 06 $32 +$34 +108%
Capitals vs. Golden Knights Mar 31 $22 +$31 +138%
Spread: Purdue Boilermakers (-7.5) Mar 27 $22 +$22 +99%
Magic vs. Cavaliers Mar 26 $23 +$6 +27%
Santa Clara Broncos vs. Kentucky Wildcats Mar 24 $23 +$16 +69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 1h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $46 18h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $107 25h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 35¢ $4 4d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 4d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 4d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $25 6d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $25 7d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $21 12d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 13d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $26 13d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $26 14d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? SELL No 100¢ $16 21d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? SELL No 100¢ $10 21d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? SELL No 100¢ $9 21d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? BUY No 100¢ $35 21d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $42 22d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $38 23d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $38 23d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $31 23d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $31 23d
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $78 26d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $29 27d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $29 27d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $31 28d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $31 28d
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $24 29d
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $24 30d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $36 30d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $36 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $190.75 · official $190.75 (match) · 275 history records