Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:11:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x58de…9169 sports 219 markets active 1h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,840 (-6%) realized −$2,836 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate60%123W / 82L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$215per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$348est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$544now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$190
7 days−$162
14 days+$1,022
30 days−$119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$3,308
other 6% +$376
world 1% −$44
crypto 0% +$36
politics 0% +$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -17.3% -25.2% 62% 24% -10.2%
≤30d 80 +32.3% +19.7% 62% 39% -10.0%
≤90d 205 +5.6% -4.5% 60% 44% -15.3%
all 205 +5.6% -4.5% 60% 44% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.5% 44% -15.3%
10% -13.6% 33% -23.4%
15% -22.0% 25% -30.8%
20% -29.6% 19% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -16% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$143 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$544
Realized−$2,836
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses123 / 82
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$348
Open positions14
Markets (closed)205 / 219
History coverage77d
Avg bet$215
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 205 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Nansen launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $182 $183 +$1 (+0%)
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30? No 79¢ 94¢ $55 $66 +$11 (+20%)
Will Tempo launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $64 $64 +$0 (+0%)
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026 No 87¢ 78¢ $64 $57 −$7 (-10%)
GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 93¢ 96¢ $51 $53 +$1 (+3%)
Will Rabby launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 83¢ 73¢ $56 $49 −$7 (-12%)
Will Fomo launch a token by June 30 2026? No 87¢ 96¢ $25 $27 +$3 (+10%)
Kraken IPO closing market cap above $26B? No 50¢ 87¢ $15 $26 +$11 (+74%)
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 24¢ 26¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Dreamcash FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 89¢ 84¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Exponent launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 95¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+11%)
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $14 $2 −$13 (-90%)
Will Hibachi launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 17¢ 1¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-96%)
APYX FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 19¢ 32¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $76 +$1 +2%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $3,840 +$438 +11%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $357 −$356 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $68 $0 -0%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $7 $0 +2%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $655 +$19 +3%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1,570 +$40 +2%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $565 +$8 +2%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $130 −$127 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $126 +$4 +3%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $1,182 +$82 +7%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $186 −$3 -2%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $399 +$11 +3%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $9 −$6 -74%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $31 +$3 +10%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $305 −$304 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $479 +$56 +12%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $1,231 +$304 +25%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $63 −$62 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $36 −$1 -2%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $1,508 +$137 +9%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $100 −$15 -15%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $925 −$921 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $300 −$297 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $386 −$382 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $8 $0 +2%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $67 +$6 +9%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,017 +$193 +19%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $465 +$46 +10%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $1,732 +$110 +6%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $1,274 +$710 +56%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $6 +$4 +67%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 14 $93 +$86 +92%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $168 +$7 +4%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $662 +$88 +13%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $95 +$73 +77%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $31 +$6 +20%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $42 +$3 +8%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$5 +105%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $14 −$6 -42%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $432 −$114 -26%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $4 +$1 +13%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $608 −$577 -95%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $8 $0 -2%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 88¢ $357 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 98¢ $8 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 98¢ $98 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 96¢ $94 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 96¢ $68 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 95¢ $176 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 95¢ $1 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 95¢ $75 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 95¢ $285 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 94¢ $498 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 99¢ $61 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 100¢ $68 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 100¢ $68 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 85¢ $621 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 85¢ $59 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $14 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 78¢ $630 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 97¢ $292 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 92¢ $453 2h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 96¢ $10 2h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 94¢ $472 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 99¢ $1 4h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 99¢ $444 4h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 98¢ $99 4h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 97¢ $21 4h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 98¢ $697 4h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 98¢ $69 4h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 97¢ $421 4h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 97¢ $239 4h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 97¢ $60 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $544.41 · official $544.37 (match) · 977 history records