Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:59:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
58 0x58e0…5136 sports 89 markets active 2h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$998 (+13%) realized +$995 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate60%51W / 34L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$1,272now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$58
14 days+$97
30 days−$325
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% +$1,286
other 23% +$189
finance 9% +$41
crypto 9% −$576
sports 4% +$8
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -8.1% -16.9% 55% 36% -6.3%
≤30d 49 +17.4% +6.2% 53% 47% -19.9%
≤90d 85 +16.3% +5.2% 60% 52% +4.0%
all 85 +16.3% +5.2% 60% 52% +4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.2% 52% +4.0%
10% -4.9% 47% -5.9%
15% -14.1% 39% -15.0%
20% -22.5% 28% -23.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 62% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +28% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$25 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.13 per $1 lost it wins $2.13
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$1,272
Realized+$995
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses51 / 34
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)85 / 89
History coverage71d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 90¢ $600 $608 +$8 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 94¢ 95¢ $459 $464 +$5 (+1%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No 79¢ 79¢ $200 $200 −$0 (-0%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 +$4 +44%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 22 $600 +$7 +1%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Jun 21 $157 −$10 -7%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Yulia Putintseva Jun 20 $15 $0 +3%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Irina-Camelia Begu vs Tamara Korpatsc Jun 20 $15 −$15 -99%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 19 $5 +$2 +40%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Viktorija Golubic Jun 19 $5 +$6 +109%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Jun 18 $384 +$103 +27%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Jun 18 $415 −$24 -6%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$4 +21%
Will Nicolás Tagliafico be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 12 $19 +$4 +21%
HSBC Championships: Jaqueline Cristian vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Stuttgart Open (Doubles): Lehecka/Moutet vs Hanfmann/Struff Jun 12 $11 −$1 -10%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 11 $10 +$19 +188%
Libema Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Elise Mertens Jun 11 $10 +$30 +291%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 11 $10 +$13 +124%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $100 −$3 -3%
Libema Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Sara Bejlek Jun 09 $10 +$5 +48%
Bratislava: Martin Krumich vs Maxim Mrva Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $20 +$21 +103%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $110 +$79 +72%
HSBC Championships: Karolina Pliskova vs McCartney Kessler Jun 08 $10 +$6 +57%
Stuttgart Open: Tommy Paul vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Jun 08 $10 $0 -2%
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 06 $13 +$7 +60%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $5 +$10 +188%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 05 $121 +$2 +1%
Birmingham: Rebeka Masarova vs Mary Stoiana Jun 05 $5 +$2 +36%
ITF Rosbach: Kai Wehnelt vs Taym Al Azmeh Jun 05 $5 +$3 +57%
Birmingham: Sho Shimabukuro vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 05 $5 +$3 +57%
ITF Rosbach: Marcel Zielinski vs Fons Van Sambeek Jun 05 $5 −$5 -99%
Birmingham: Arthur Fery vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 05 $5 −$5 -99%
Heilbronn: Guy Den Ouden vs Emilio Nava Jun 05 $5 −$5 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $5 −$5 -98%
Birmingham: Yunchaokete Bu vs Mark Lajal Jun 05 $5 −$5 -99%
Makarska: Elina Avanesyan vs Dominika Salkova Jun 04 $10 +$10 +97%
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Alina Charaeva Jun 04 $10 +$4 +35%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $10 +$13 +124%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $10 −$10 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $5 +$37 +712%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $10 −$10 -98%
Heilbronn: Max Schoenhaus vs Alejandro Moro Canas Jun 03 $10 −$10 -99%
Makarska: Andrea Lazaro Garcia vs Laura Samson Jun 03 $10 −$10 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $10 −$10 -99%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $555 −$551 -99%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 01 $30 +$16 +54%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23? May 24 $1,300 +$58 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $100 1h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $100 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 94¢ $300 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $607 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 94¢ $146 3d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL No 50¢ $146 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $13 4d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 83¢ $200 4d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 83¢ $200 4d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 83¢ $100 4d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 83¢ $100 4d
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Irina-Camelia Begu vs Tamara Korpatsc BUY Tamara Korpatsch 57¢ $15 4d
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Yulia Putintseva BUY Anna Blinkova 48¢ $15 4d
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Tommy Paul 71¢ $5 5d
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Viktorija Golubic BUY Viktorija Golubic 47¢ $5 5d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? SELL No 51¢ $210 6d
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 63¢ $5 6d
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Hamad Medjedovic 41¢ $10 6d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? SELL No 37¢ $306 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $20 7d
Will Nicolás Tagliafico be in Argentina's Starting 11? SELL No 97¢ $23 12d
Will Nicolás Tagliafico be in Argentina's Starting 11? BUY No 71¢ $9 12d
Will Nicolás Tagliafico be in Argentina's Starting 11? BUY No 90¢ $10 12d
HSBC Championships: Jaqueline Cristian vs Katie Boulter BUY Jaqueline Cristian 33¢ $10 12d
Stuttgart Open (Doubles): Lehecka/Moutet vs Hanfmann/Struff BUY Hanfmann/Struff 55¢ $3 13d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 81¢ $23 13d
Stuttgart Open (Doubles): Lehecka/Moutet vs Hanfmann/Struff BUY Hanfmann/Struff 55¢ $2 13d
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 39¢ $10 13d
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Nick Kyrgios 60¢ $10 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,272.10 · official $1,272.10 (match) · 254 history records