Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:06:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x58e1…68ed crypto 27 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (62 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$210 (-3%) realized −$170 · open −$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate70%16W / 7L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$294per market
Trades / day62.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$653now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% −$261
other 11% +$309
sports 9% +$172
culture 1% +$2
weather 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (62 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -2.8% -12.1% 70% 52% -5.9%
≤30d 23 -2.8% -12.1% 70% 52% -5.9%
≤90d 23 -2.8% -12.1% 70% 52% -5.9%
all 23 -2.8% -12.1% 70% 52% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover62.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 52% -5.9%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 35% -14.9%
15% -28.2% 17% -23.1%
20% -35.2% 17% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$163 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$653
Realized−$170
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses16 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)23 / 27
History coverage1d
Avg bet$294
Trades / day62.0
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $321 $299 −$23 (-7%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Down 48¢ 42¢ $171 $148 −$23 (-13%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 26 $332 −$332 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 26 $128 +$36 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 26 $507 +$58 +11%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 26 $308 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 26 $201 +$9 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 26 $101 −$10 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 26 $408 +$141 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 26 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 26 $101 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 26 $308 +$187 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 26 $231 +$132 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 26 $614 −$600 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 26 $705 +$87 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 26 $457 +$116 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 26 $658 +$130 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 26 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 26 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $704 +$172 +24%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $399 +$270 +68%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 25 $105 −$46 -44%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $366 +$34 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 25? Jun 25 $10 +$11 +107%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $104 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $104 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $135 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $102 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $101 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $102 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $102 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $102 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $101 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $231 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $102 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $103 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $101 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $42 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $26 16m
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 66¢ $315 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $101 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $91 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $101 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $102 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $102 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $102 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $102 30m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $653.16 · official $770.13 · 99 history records