Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:13:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

58
0x58e4…3876
sports · 74 markets active 1h ago
3.5score
+$30 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$118 · open −$89
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$511
Realized+$118
Unrealized−$89
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses43 / 28
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions3
Markets (closed)71 / 74
History coverage19d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 3 History 71 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$188
7 days−$46
14 days−$301
30 days+$118
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Under 78¢ 56¢ $300 $213 −$87 (-29%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 Under 82¢ 81¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Under 65¢ 64¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? Yes 64¢ 0¢ $119 $0 −$119 (-100%)
Spread: CS Cristal (-1.5) CS Cristal 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Hungary vs. Finland: O/U 2.5 Under 69¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will Singapore vs. China PR end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-100%)
Sweden vs. Greece: O/U 3.5 Under 74¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-03? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $58 $0 −$58 (-100%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Under 82¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-05? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Panama vs. Dominican Republic: O/U 3.5 Under 62¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-06-05? Yes 47¢ 0¢ $91 $0 −$91 (-100%)
Will Cyprus win on 2026-06-04? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will Haiti vs. Peru end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $65 $0 −$65 (-100%)
Slovenia vs. Cyprus: O/U 1.5 Under 32¢ 0¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Will Singapore win on 2026-06-05? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will British Virgin Islands win on 2026-06-03? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Spread: Urawa Red Diamonds (-1.5) Urawa Red Diamonds 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Under 61¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will Azerbaijan vs. Malta end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $58 $0 −$58 (-100%)
Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-04? Yes 69¢ 0¢ $102 $0 −$102 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $502 +$34 +7%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $135 +$13 +9%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $91 +$100 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $82 −$44 -54%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $344 +$37 +11%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $302 −$300 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $59 −$58 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $151 +$31 +20%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $171 +$18 +11%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $86 +$3 +4%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $87 +$7 +8%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $74 +$14 +18%
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $20 +$31 +152%
Belarus vs. Burkina Faso: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $40 −$18 -44%
DR Congo vs. Chile: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $75 +$16 +21%
Tajikistan vs. India: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $75 +$21 +28%
Russia vs. Trinidad and Tobago: O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $75 +$23 +31%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $30 −$30 -100%
Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $75 +$21 +28%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $83 +$17 +20%
Equatorial Guinea vs. Comoros: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $30 −$4 -14%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $30 +$3 +11%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 4.5 Jun 08 $40 +$1 +2%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $43 +$6 +14%
Niger vs. Mauritania: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $30 +$4 +12%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $51 −$10 -20%
Ecuador vs. Guatemala: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $41 +$4 +10%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $33 +$6 +17%
Kosovo vs. Andorra: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $37 +$6 +16%
Argentina vs. Honduras: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $27 +$1 +5%
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $26 −$3 -12%
England vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $42 +$6 +15%
United States vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $15 +$10 +63%
Albania vs. Luxembourg: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $43 +$3 +7%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $30 +$22 +73%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $43 +$7 +18%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $30 −$30 -99%
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $46 +$3 +6%
Will Peru win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $85 +$134 +158%
Will Malta win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $27 +$77 +291%
Hungary vs. Finland: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Peru end in a draw? Jun 05 $66 −$65 -98%
Will Azerbaijan vs. Malta end in a draw? Jun 05 $59 −$58 -98%
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $92 −$91 -98%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $105 +$74 +70%
Will Singapore win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Singapore vs. China PR end in a draw? Jun 05 $45 −$44 -98%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 04 $2 +$1 +36%
Will Slovenia vs. Cyprus end in a draw? Jun 04 $33 +$120 +365%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 84% +$16
other 16% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $302 1h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 82¢ $201 3h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 65¢ $101 3h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $34 3h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 84¢ $201 4h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $101 4h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 83¢ $298 4h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 83¢ $302 4h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 15¢ $38 20h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 25¢ $20 20h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 29¢ $20 20h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 34¢ $20 20h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 41¢ $21 21h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 9¢ $41 26h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $302 28h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $1 29h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 82¢ $302 33h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $91 33h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $59 33h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 97¢ $182 44h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 11¢ $21 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $151 2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 80¢ $151 2d
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 1¢ $1 2d
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 1¢ $10 2d
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 93¢ $88 3d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 3¢ $1 3d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 11¢ $11 3d
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 83¢ $74 3d
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 78¢ $74 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +4.2% -5.7% 75% 53% -10.9%
≤30d 71 -4.4% -13.5% 61% 46% -7.3%
≤90d 71 -4.4% -13.5% 61% 46% -7.3%
all 71 -4.4% -13.5% 61% 46% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 46% -7.3%
10% -21.8% 28% -16.2%
15% -29.3% 20% -24.3%
20% -36.3% 15% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $511.45 · official $511.47 (match) · 172 history records