Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:58:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x58e9…441a other 151 markets active 1h ago coverage 538d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$276 (-1%) realized −$275 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate31%47W / 103L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$147per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$54
7 days−$132
14 days−$159
30 days−$159
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$60
other 12% −$161
crypto 7% −$5
world 7% −$6
politics 4% −$38
tech 3% −$35
culture 1% −$7
finance 1% −$96
economics 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -10.5% -19.0% 13% 0% -14.3%
≤30d 56 -11.9% -20.3% 12% 0% -14.5%
≤90d 92 -7.6% -16.4% 20% 3% -13.1%
all 150 -5.1% -14.2% 31% 9% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 9% -10.7%
10% -22.4% 3% -19.2%
15% -29.9% 2% -27.0%
20% -36.8% 1% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 42% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

538d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$275
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses47 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)150 / 151
History coverage538d
Avg bet$147
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 150 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? No 45¢ 42¢ $22 $21 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? Jun 20 $10 $0 -3%
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Jun 20 $12 −$6 -54%
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by les Jun 20 $25 −$4 -17%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the Jun 20 $68 −$7 -10%
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 20 $29 −$2 -7%
Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership e Jun 20 $38 +$1 +2%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 19 $35 $0 +0%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 19 $28 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Jun 19 $96 +$2 +3%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round Jun 19 $76 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 19 $28 −$1 -5%
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? Jun 19 $25 $0 +0%
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 19 $27 $0 -0%
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June? Jun 19 $22 −$2 -10%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $79 $0 +0%
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? Jun 19 $47 −$1 -3%
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio Jun 19 $18 −$11 -60%
Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec gen Jun 19 $10 −$2 -18%
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? Jun 18 $11 −$1 -11%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? Jun 18 $70 −$5 -7%
Will voter turnout be 56-60% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 18 $39 −$3 -8%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? Jun 18 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Jun 18 $54 −$1 -1%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 18 $14 $0 +0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 18 $92 $0 -0%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 in June? Jun 18 $4 −$3 -67%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 18 $50 −$4 -9%
Will Celeste Maloy be the Republican nominee for UT-03? Jun 18 $50 −$2 -5%
Will Deep Fission's market cap be less than $1.25B at market close on Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 18 $50 −$2 -4%
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? Jun 17 $36 +$1 +2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $59 −$2 -3%
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? Jun 17 $48 −$2 -4%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 17 $91 $0 -0%
Will April McClain Delaney be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $12 $0 +3%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 16 $46 −$1 -3%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Hylo launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 15 $102 −$33 -32%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 15 $13 $0 +4%
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa Jun 15 $50 −$4 -9%
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? Jun 15 $2 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? Jun 15 $7 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 15 $8 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 14 $116 −$4 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 14 $261 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $70 $0 +0%
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 13 $42 −$2 -6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 13 $204 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY No 45¢ $22 53m
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? SELL Yes 20¢ $9 1h
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 1h
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? SELL No 11¢ $5 1h
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by les SELL Yes 10¢ $5 1h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the SELL No 60¢ $18 1h
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? SELL No 55¢ $27 1h
Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership e SELL No 79¢ $39 1h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the BUY No 59¢ $18 2h
Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership e BUY No 77¢ $38 4h
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY No 58¢ $29 4h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $0 5h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $35 5h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $35 6h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $13 6h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $3 6h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $5 6h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $7 6h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $28 6h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $1 9h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $2 9h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $2 9h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $17 9h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $22 9h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round SELL No 39¢ $19 9h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the SELL Yes 35¢ $17 9h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $27 9h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? SELL Yes 50¢ $25 11h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY No 37¢ $18 11h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the BUY Yes 39¢ $20 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.25 · official $21.25 (match) · 488 history records