Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T14:48:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
58 0x58ef…95fa politics 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 20d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,543 (-67%) realized −$1,280 · open −$263
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -88% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -90% what you keep after slip
Net edge-90%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$382per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$233now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 20d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 98% −$1,807
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-89.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -88.4% -89.5% 0% 0% -96.1%
≤90d 2 -88.4% -89.5% 0% 0% -96.1%
all 2 -88.4% -89.5% 0% 0% -96.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -89.5% 0% -96.1%
10% -90.5% 0% -96.5%
15% -91.4% 0% -96.8%
20% -92.2% 0% -97.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -96% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -88% · $-wt -96% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$772 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$233
Realized−$1,280
Unrealized−$263
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)2 / 6
History coverage20d
Avg bet$382
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $347 $180 −$167 (-48%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $51 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $47 $1 −$46 (-97%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $50 $1 −$49 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 16 $107 −$86 -80%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 16 $1,507 −$1,459 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $52 1h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 0¢ $10 1h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 0¢ $42 1h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 3¢ $165 24h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 2¢ $36 24h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 1¢ $52 24h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 1¢ $52 24h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 0¢ $46 7d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 1¢ $104 10d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 2¢ $70 11d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 1¢ $21 11d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 0¢ $48 11d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 4¢ $49 17d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 3¢ $52 17d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 5¢ $57 17d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 6¢ $99 18d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 6¢ $8 18d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 11¢ $988 19d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 15¢ $46 19d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 19¢ $248 19d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 23¢ $139 19d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 32¢ $28 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $232.54 · official $232.54 (match) · 22 history records