Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:36:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x58f6…30cf weather 48 markets active 4d ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5 (-6%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%10W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$9
14 days−$3
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-24.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -16.8% -24.7% 12% 12% -32.4%
≤30d 48 -16.3% -24.3% 21% 21% -14.7%
≤90d 48 -16.3% -24.3% 21% 21% -14.7%
all 48 -16.3% -24.3% 21% 21% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.3% 21% -14.7%
10% -31.5% 21% -22.9%
15% -38.1% 21% -30.3%
20% -44.2% 21% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$2 · ×3.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses10 / 38
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 48
History coverage19d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions (38 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$9 +698%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 13 $4 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$14 +434%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 13? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 13? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 12? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 9? Jun 10 $2 +$6 +286%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 9? Jun 10 $4 +$7 +193%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 9? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 9? Jun 08 $4 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 9? Jun 08 $2 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $4 +$7 +185%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 9? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 9? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on June 9? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 8? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 8? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 8? Jun 07 $2 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 +$4 +245%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 04 $2 +$3 +212%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 5? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 5? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 5? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on May 31? Jun 02 $2 +$3 +149%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 31? May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on May 31? May 29 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on May 31? May 29 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ma May 28 $1 +$4 +257%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on May 27? May 28 $1 +$4 +358%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on May 27? May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ma May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ma May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ma May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on May 27? May 26 $2 −$1 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on May 27? May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 14? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY Yes 32¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 4d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 4d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 13? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 13? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 4d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 13? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 4d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 13? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 12? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 9? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 8d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 9? BUY Yes 33¢ $4 8d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 9? BUY Yes 33¢ $4 8d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 9? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 8d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 9? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 9d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 9? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 9d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 9? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 9d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on June 9? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 9d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 8? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 9d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 8? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 9d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 8? BUY Yes 34¢ $4 9d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 8? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 9d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 5? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 69 history records