Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:10:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
58 0x58f6…bf5a sports 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 584d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$121 (+5%) realized +$122 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +112% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +92% what you keep after slip
Net edge+92%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate71%12W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$284now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$441
7 days+$931
14 days+$931
30 days+$931
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$267
sports 47% +$606
world 1% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)+91.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +140.1% +117.3% 80% 80% +45.1%
≤30d 15 +140.1% +117.3% 80% 80% +45.1%
≤90d 15 +140.1% +117.3% 80% 80% +45.1%
all 17 +111.9% +91.7% 71% 71% +3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +91.7% 71% +3.5%
10% +73.4% 65% -6.4%
15% +56.6% 59% -15.4%
20% +41.3% 53% -23.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 38% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +60% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +112% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +181% → late +50% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$104 vs −$187 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

584d coverage
Net worth$284
Realized+$122
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses12 / 5
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions6
Markets (closed)17 / 27
History coverage584d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 68¢ 86¢ $96 $121 +$25 (+26%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $90 $89 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Over 55¢ 28¢ $50 $25 −$25 (-50%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4 $3 −$1 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Barcelona vs. Valencia Jun 22 $200 +$161 +80%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $126 −$124 -99%
Monaco vs. Paris Basketball Jun 22 $163 −$163 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $102 +$298 +291%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $47 +$51 +109%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $99 +$29 +29%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $29 −$28 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $51 +$77 +152%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 21 $152 +$140 +92%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $303 +$126 +42%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $5 +$51 +1115%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $49 +$6 +12%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $20 +$44 +214%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $101 +$87 +86%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $98 +$177 +180%
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Nov 15 $563 −$563 -100%
Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? Nov 15 $57 −$57 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 AND Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY 21¢ $10 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $51 1h
Barcelona vs. Valencia SELL Valencia 100¢ $361 1h
Barcelona vs. Valencia BUY Valencia 64¢ $100 3h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 60¢ $25 6h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 60¢ $101 6h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 77¢ $99 25h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $29 25h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $128 27h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $47 28h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $102 28h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 39¢ $51 28h
Monaco vs. Paris Basketball BUY Paris Basketball 39¢ $61 32h
Monaco vs. Paris Basketball BUY Paris Basketball 39¢ $102 32h
Barcelona vs. Valencia BUY Valencia 48¢ $100 36h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 36h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 36h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 36h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 36h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $92 36h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $49 2d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Spread: Germany (-2.5) AND Türkiye vs. Parag BUY 20¢ $14 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 90¢ $64 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY $5 3d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 28¢ $20 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 35¢ $98 4d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 53¢ $101 4d
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY Yes 68¢ $97 4d
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $303 4d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U BUY 16¢ $6 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $283.55 · official $293.55 · 48 history records