Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:04:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
58 0x58fd…eb72 sports 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,403 (-17%) realized −$1,403 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%25W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$148per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$94est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$259
7 days−$1,064
14 days−$955
30 days−$584
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$580
other 11% −$915
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-25.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -58.8% -62.7% 23% 23% -61.9%
≤30d 37 -14.8% -22.9% 43% 43% -22.8%
≤90d 56 -17.5% -25.3% 45% 45% -27.0%
all 56 -17.5% -25.3% 45% 45% -27.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.3% 45% -27.0%
10% -32.5% 45% -34.0%
15% -39.0% 30% -40.4%
20% -45.0% 21% -46.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$117 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,403
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses25 / 31
Est. fees paid−$94
Open positions0
Markets (closed)56 / 56
History coverage62d
Avg bet$148
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 56 Trades
no open positions (31 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $234 +$68 +29%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $152 −$149 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $182 −$178 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $145 −$141 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $185 −$180 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $119 −$116 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $185 −$181 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $184 −$180 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $121 −$118 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $254 +$186 +73%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $74 −$72 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $14 +$19 +134%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $21 −$20 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $55 +$138 +250%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$14 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $29 −$28 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $71 −$70 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $4 +$3 +57%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - As Jun 10 $1 +$4 +413%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $85 +$85 +101%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $99 +$93 +93%
Will Angola vs. Central African Republic end in a draw? Jun 09 $121 +$35 +29%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $88 +$33 +38%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $24 −$24 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $150 +$70 +46%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $197 −$192 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $159 −$12 -8%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $308 +$261 +85%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $408 −$49 -12%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $231 +$67 +29%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $121 −$119 -99%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $231 +$92 +40%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $145 +$94 +65%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $26 −$25 -99%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $73 +$51 +70%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Liquid (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 14 $161 +$92 +57%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 13 $121 +$33 +27%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 13 $16 +$47 +291%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs M80 (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 12 $99 −$97 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group May 12 $19 −$19 -98%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 12 $25 −$24 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 12 $30 −$29 -98%
76ers vs. Knicks May 05 $239 +$95 +40%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 04 $278 +$90 +32%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $309 −$304 -98%
76ers vs. Celtics May 02 $106 −$105 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors May 01 $334 −$331 -99%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves May 01 $234 −$232 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Virtus.pro 100¢ $302 1h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Virtus.pro 77¢ $234 15h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $152 47h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $182 47h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $145 2d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $185 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $119 4d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $185 4d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $184 5d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $121 5d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 57¢ $254 6d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $74 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $21 6d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 42¢ $14 7d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $55 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $15 7d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 56¢ $29 7d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 39¢ $71 8d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 36¢ $10 10d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 63¢ $4 11d
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 12d
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - As SELL CTBC Flying Oyster Academy 100¢ $5 12d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 51¢ $99 12d
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo SELL XLG Gaming 100¢ $121 12d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY TYLOO 27¢ $24 13d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 49¢ $85 13d
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo BUY XLG Gaming 72¢ $88 13d
Will Angola vs. Central African Republic end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $121 13d
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - As BUY CTBC Flying Oyster Academy 19¢ $1 13d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL BetBoom Team 99¢ $220 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 100 history records