Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:34:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

58
0x58fe…77dd
crypto · 94 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$54 -16%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$54 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$18
Realized−$54
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses27 / 59
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions8
Markets (closed)86 / 94
Avg bet$4
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 8 History 86 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 52¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Down 92¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Dplus KIA 15¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Hell" during Coast Guard event? No 22¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Coast Guard event? No 13¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: T1 Academy vs DN SOOPers Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 1-2 DN SOOPers Challengers 16¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Timberwolves Timberwolves 23¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Thunder Spurs 33¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Trump say "China" during Coast Guard event? No 28¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Chicago Sky vs. Phoenix Mercury Chicago Sky 36¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 25 $2 +$1 +27%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Kazakhstan? May 25 $1 $0 +0%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 20 $7 −$7 -92%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? May 20 $25 −$11 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 20 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO3) May 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET May 20 $3 −$2 -59%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Coast Guard event? May 20 $13 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET May 20 $1 +$1 +83%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? May 20 $10 −$1 -7%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump say "Hell" during Coast Guard event? May 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Trump say "Venezuela" during Coast Guard event? May 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Trump say "China" during Coast Guard event? May 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 20 $6 −$6 -98%
Hamburg European Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Aleksandar Kovacevic May 20 $2 +$25 +1202%
Chicago Sky vs. Phoenix Mercury May 16 $9 −$9 -98%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Luciano Darderi May 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Valorant: T1 vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs May 15 $10 −$9 -89%
Will Justin Bieber have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listene May 15 $6 −$4 -67%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $20 +$4 +20%
Will Drake have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this May 15 $6 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2026-05-15? May 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 15 $1 $0 -12%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia? May 15 $1 $0 -50%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another Middle East/Nor May 15 $1 $0 -50%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? May 15 $1 −$1 -61%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 15 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 15 $1 $0 +7%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? May 15 $1 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $6 −$2 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET May 15 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 15 $2 −$1 -60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 38% −$10
crypto 26% −$8
other 17% −$17
politics 11% +$1
world 5% −$14
culture 4% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $4 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 7¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 3h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 4h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 4h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 5h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 5h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -15.0% -23.1% 38% 25% -30.3%
≤30d 86 -15.6% -23.7% 31% 21% -24.9%
≤90d 86 -15.6% -23.7% 31% 21% -24.9%
all 86 -15.6% -23.7% 31% 21% -24.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.7% 21% -24.9%
10% -31.0% 19% -32.1%
15% -37.6% 14% -38.7%
20% -43.8% 10% -44.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.13 · official $18.13 (match) · 251 history records