Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:58:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x5900…cd7e other 269 markets active 2h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$101 (-0%) realized −$101 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%12W / 256L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$173per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$16
14 days−$24
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$34
sports 28% −$24
politics 7% −$6
economics 7% −$6
crypto 6% −$37
culture 5% −$4
world 3% −$1
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 87 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 192 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 268 -0.3% -9.8% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 61% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$101
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses12 / 256
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)268 / 269
History coverage138d
Avg bet$173
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 268 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $94 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $306 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $54 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $366 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $173 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $897 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $267 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $244 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $161 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $237 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $232 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $371 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $414 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $378 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $37 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $180 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $161 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $246 −$1 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $181 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $38 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $357 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 11 $240 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $348 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 11 $360 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $516 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $153 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $144 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $222 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $339 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $313 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 09 $226 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $129 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $229 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $297 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $40 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $475 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $241 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $248 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $207 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 07 $276 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $372 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $125 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $238 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $104 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $178 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $622 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $42 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $36 1h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $36 8h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $36 9h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $36 11h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $36 13h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $36 14h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $36 16h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $36 17h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $36 19h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $36 21h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $36 23h
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $36 23h
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $36 25h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $36 26h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $37 27h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $36 30h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $37 31h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $37 35h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $37 36h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $37 45h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $37 47h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $37 2d
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $37 2d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $37 2d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $37 2d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $37 2d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $37 2d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $37 2d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $37 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $37 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.86 · official $35.86 (match) · 1487 history records