Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:57:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
59 0x5901…63a2 sports 180 markets active 2h ago coverage 165d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$949 (+1%) realized +$933 · open +$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%80W / 99L
Whale WR51%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$462per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$499est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$1,480now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 165d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$900
other 41% +$3,536
crypto 1% −$1,157
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +14.0% +3.1% 42% 42% +0.3%
≤30d 75 +14.3% +3.4% 48% 48% +2.9%
≤90d 117 -0.8% -10.3% 41% 40% -2.2%
all 179 +0.2% -9.4% 45% 43% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 43% -5.8%
10% -18.0% 42% -14.8%
15% -26.0% 41% -23.0%
20% -33.2% 40% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 51% (≥$564) neutral
Persistence
early -2% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$482 vs −$356 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$1,480
Realized+$933
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses80 / 99
Whale WR (big bets)51%
Est. fees paid−$499
Open positions1
Markets (closed)179 / 180
History coverage165d
Avg bet$462
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 179 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $1,464 $1,480 +$16 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 87 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3,031 +$778 +26%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $1,143 +$1,887 +165%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $1,189 −$1,169 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $512 +$744 +145%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $441 −$434 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $625 −$615 -98%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $564 −$556 -98%
Jonathan David: 1+ goals Jun 19 $260 +$305 +117%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $434 +$455 +105%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $164 +$271 +165%
Harry Kane: 3+ goals Jun 17 $9 −$9 -98%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 17 $116 +$58 +50%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $1,690 +$2,001 +118%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $578 −$570 -99%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $631 −$622 -99%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $523 −$413 -79%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3,306 +$1,884 +57%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $2,107 +$1,201 +57%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $1,040 +$1,068 +103%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $687 −$674 -98%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 15 $733 −$721 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $485 +$936 +193%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $258 −$253 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $705 −$447 -64%
Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals Jun 15 $455 −$446 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $632 −$622 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $185 +$2,091 +1131%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 15 $394 −$387 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $577 −$564 -98%
Enner Valencia: 1+ goals Jun 14 $340 −$333 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,175 −$1,157 -98%
Kai Havertz: 2+ goals Jun 14 $643 +$1,529 +238%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $548 −$539 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $576 −$567 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $576 +$643 +112%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $570 −$559 -98%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $684 −$672 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $570 −$559 -98%
Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 14 $455 −$446 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $480 −$474 -99%
La Laguna Tenerife vs. Barcelona Jun 13 $100 +$59 +59%
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals Jun 13 $167 +$155 +93%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,039 +$1,134 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $317 −$313 -99%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $114 −$113 -99%
Valencia vs. Joventut Jun 10 $466 −$457 -98%
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 10 $909 −$900 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $486 +$532 +109%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 06 $526 −$518 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $225 +$301 +134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $1,488 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,809 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $3,031 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $3,030 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 37¢ $1,143 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 44¢ $1,189 5h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 46¢ $1,189 5h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $1,254 5h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $1,256 5h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 40¢ $512 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 43¢ $441 9h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 43¢ $625 10h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Spirit 50¢ $564 12h
Jonathan David: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $260 29h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 100¢ $890 29h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 48¢ $434 31h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $435 31h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 37¢ $164 33h
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $9 2d
Harry Kane: 2+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $174 2d
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 65¢ $116 2d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $3,691 2d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $1,690 2d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $578 2d
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 51¢ $631 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $110 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $523 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $3,306 3d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 63¢ $2,107 3d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $2,109 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,479.90 · official $1,479.90 (match) · 296 history records