Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:07:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x5908…43f5 other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3 (-3%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate62%8W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day16.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$2
sports 24% −$3
crypto 5% +$4
world 4% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -1.3% -10.7% 62% 54% -14.4%
≤30d 13 -1.3% -10.7% 62% 54% -14.4%
≤90d 13 -1.3% -10.7% 62% 54% -14.4%
all 13 -1.3% -10.7% 62% 54% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 54% -14.4%
10% -19.2% 46% -22.6%
15% -27.0% 23% -30.1%
20% -34.2% 23% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -41% → late +33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses8 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)13 / 18
History coverage2d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day16.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Spain 75¢ 78¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 53¢ 52¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? No 37¢ 36¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +26%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$4 +86%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $3 +$1 +23%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 +$1 +17%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $35 −$4 -12%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +32%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -31%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 +$3 +76%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 $0 +9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $5 58m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 37¢ $3 4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $3 4h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 75¢ $5 4h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 79¢ $3 13h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 81¢ $3 13h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 85¢ $5 13h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 63¢ $5 15h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $5 22h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 74¢ $5 26h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 72¢ $10 26h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 59¢ $1 26h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 28¢ $11 26h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 26h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 84¢ $2 27h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 68¢ $5 27h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 75¢ $5 28h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 56¢ $2 32h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Morocco 82¢ $1 32h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 56¢ $2 32h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 58¢ $3 32h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY 39¢ $1 32h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 74¢ $1 32h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 50¢ $1 37h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.13 · official $16.13 (match) · 33 history records