Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:45:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
59 0x590a…96ed sports 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$18 (+15%) realized +$22 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%12W / 13L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$17
other 9% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +35.6% +22.7% 48% 48% +6.2%
≤30d 25 +35.6% +22.7% 48% 48% +6.2%
≤90d 25 +35.6% +22.7% 48% 48% +6.2%
all 25 +35.6% +22.7% 48% 48% +6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +22.7% 48% +6.2%
10% +10.9% 48% -4.0%
15% +0.2% 36% -13.3%
20% -9.6% 28% -21.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +36% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +66% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$22
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses12 / 13
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)25 / 29
History coverage4d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 71¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Over 30¢ 10¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-67%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +46%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$13 +249%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$2 +216%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +26%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 +$2 +216%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -85%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +276%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$5 +101%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 +$3 +67%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 −$5 -52%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $5 +$2 +48%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $5 +$2 +32%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $4 +$36 +873%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Over 30¢ $2 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $2 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $2 14h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 0.5 BUY Under $1 15h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 19h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $3 19h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $3 19h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $3 19h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 19h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $1 28h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 28h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Over 31¢ $1 28h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Over 79¢ $2 28h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 31¢ $1 28h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 36h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 36h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $5 37h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 37h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 BUY Over 78¢ $5 37h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $2 38h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $5 38h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $5 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 44¢ $5 2d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $5 2d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $5 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $5 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $5 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $5 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $5 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.40 · official $7.40 (match) · 47 history records