Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:57:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x590c…059b other 168 markets active 1h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$130 (-6%) realized −$130 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate37%61W / 105L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$17
14 days−$114
30 days−$162
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% +$24
sports 25% −$149
crypto 2% −$10
world 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +1.7% -7.9% 32% 30% -12.4%
≤30d 125 -1.3% -10.7% 36% 34% -17.5%
≤90d 166 -2.9% -12.1% 37% 35% -14.8%
all 166 -2.9% -12.1% 37% 35% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 35% -14.8%
10% -20.5% 29% -22.9%
15% -28.2% 23% -30.4%
20% -35.3% 20% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$8 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$130
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses61 / 105
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)166 / 168
History coverage59d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 166 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Yes 44¢ 44¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 77 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $51 +$35 +70%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 United States? Jun 26 $5 $0 -5%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 United States? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $20 −$20 -99%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Netherlands? Jun 26 $3 +$6 +209%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 26 $25 −$6 -23%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $5 +$25 +488%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $20 −$20 -99%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $10 +$37 +365%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $4 −$2 -52%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $45 +$2 +5%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$3 -28%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 23 $10 +$20 +195%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $10 +$3 +29%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $3 −$1 -33%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $25 +$11 +45%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $10 +$31 +307%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 +$30 +288%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 +$15 +301%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -97%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $25 +$18 +73%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $20 +$14 +67%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 −$25 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $15 +$8 +55%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $25 −$25 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $25 −$2 -6%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $25 +$21 +84%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$1 -6%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $5 +$16 +313%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $10 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 1h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $86 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 United States? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 18h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 United States? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 18h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $51 20h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 United States? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 20h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 71¢ $20 20h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Netherlands? SELL Yes 26¢ $10 20h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 60¢ $19 20h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Netherlands? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 21h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 76¢ $25 21h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $15 22h
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 89¢ $24 23h
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 73¢ $6 23h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 24h
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 30h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $5 43h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $25 43h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 2d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $20 2d
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $10 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 36¢ $26 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 3d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 99¢ $23 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $20 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.33 · official $35.33 (match) · 302 history records