Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:47:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x590d…28f3 crypto 94 markets active 2h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,450 (+29%) realized +$1,450 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate47%44W / 50L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,121
7 days+$1,176
14 days+$1,484
30 days+$1,484
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$1,482
crypto 16% +$3
other 8% −$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -15.5% -23.5% 56% 44% +29.2%
≤30d 18 +6.6% -3.6% 61% 50% +25.6%
≤90d 94 -1.9% -11.2% 47% 35% +16.1%
all 94 -1.9% -11.2% 47% 35% +16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 35% +16.1%
10% -19.7% 29% +5.0%
15% -27.5% 28% -5.2%
20% -34.6% 27% -14.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +28% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$8 · ×5.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.45 per $1 lost it wins $4.45
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,450
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses44 / 50
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)94 / 94
History coverage40d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 94 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $881 +$1,026 +116%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $10 $0 -5%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 26 $60 +$11 +18%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Ivory - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: the bug vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $753 +$86 +11%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $538 +$57 +11%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $460 +$40 +9%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Amaru Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $38 −$38 -100%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $15 +$61 +400%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs WinteR SquadronS (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea Jun 16 $365 +$64 +18%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $196 +$196 +100%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $194 +$32 +16%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $235 +$15 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$1 +18%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs KO (BO5) - Esports World Cup MESWA Closed Qual Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 26, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 26 $5 +$4 +88%
XRP Up or Down - May 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Hyperbeat FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 23 $5 −$1 -28%
Puffpaw FDV above $400M one day after launch? May 23 $10 −$1 -5%
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 23 $10 $0 -1%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? May 23 $20 −$1 -2%
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? May 23 $29 −$2 -6%
Base FDV above $10B one day after launch? May 23 $31 −$5 -18%
BNB Up or Down - May 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 19 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 19 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 19 $52 +$43 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 19 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET May 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET May 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner SELL D family 100¢ $1,907 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner SELL Power Rangers 49¢ $10 7h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY D family 49¢ $3 8h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY D family 49¢ $3 8h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY D family 49¢ $3 8h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY D family 49¢ $3 8h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY D family 49¢ $3 8h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY D family 46¢ $20 8h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY D family 46¢ $320 8h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY D family 46¢ $2 8h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY D family 46¢ $2 8h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY D family 46¢ $2 8h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY D family 46¢ $34 8h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY D family 46¢ $13 8h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY D family 46¢ $43 8h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY D family 46¢ $2 8h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY D family 46¢ $23 8h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY D family 46¢ $9 8h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY D family 46¢ $21 8h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY D family 46¢ $2 8h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY D family 46¢ $23 8h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY D family 46¢ $194 8h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY D family 46¢ $2 8h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY D family 46¢ $10 8h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY D family 46¢ $1 8h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY D family 46¢ $143 8h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Power Rangers 71¢ $71 21h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 50¢ $10 22h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 60¢ $60 25h
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Ivory - Game 1 Winner BUY Ivory 1¢ $1 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 292 history records