Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:27:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

59
0x590e…e43d
other · 33 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$3,891 +57%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,006 · open −$1,287
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,948
Realized−$1,006
Unrealized−$1,287
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses8 / 52
Open positions72
Markets (closed)60 / 33
History coverage1d
Avg bet$208
Trades / day3371.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%
Chart Positions 72 History 60 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,006
7 days−$1,006
14 days−$1,006
30 days−$1,006
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 53¢ 91¢ $738 $1,259 +$521 (+71%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 32¢ 38¢ $297 $356 +$59 (+20%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 23¢ 50¢ $102 $219 +$117 (+115%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 11¢ 20¢ $86 $150 +$64 (+74%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 15¢ 26¢ $73 $123 +$50 (+69%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 21¢ 9¢ $281 $121 −$160 (-57%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 7¢ 20¢ $32 $89 +$57 (+179%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 10¢ 20¢ $46 $88 +$41 (+90%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 12¢ $25 $76 +$51 (+209%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 5¢ 10¢ $31 $72 +$40 (+130%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $56 $51 −$4 (-8%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 6¢ 16¢ $15 $42 +$27 (+179%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $38 $38 +$1 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 14¢ 22¢ $23 $36 +$14 (+60%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $23 $26 +$3 (+14%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $25 $24 −$0 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $15 $22 +$7 (+46%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 8¢ $7 $15 +$7 (+95%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $45 $12 −$34 (-74%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $19 $11 −$8 (-43%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $14 $8 −$7 (-47%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $114 $7 −$108 (-94%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $33 $6 −$27 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $187 −$221 -118%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 12 $4 −$26 -578%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $52 +$133 +256%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$37 -1467%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $0 $0 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 12 $20 −$8 -40%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $53 +$26 +48%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? Jun 12 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? Jun 12 $0 +$2 +500%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $31 +$181 +584%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $9 +$215 +2337%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $60 −$46 -76%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $11 $0 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 12 $13 −$7 -56%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $0 $0 -89%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $0 $0 -107%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $7 +$166 +2332%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 12 $0 $0 -56%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 12 $119 −$7 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $25 −$24 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $2 +$127 +7046%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $11 +$97 +895%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 12 $354 −$218 -62%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 12 $23 −$23 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$81 -5806%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 12 $0 −$22 -9390%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -101%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -103%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 100% −$1,377
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $10 0m
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 0m
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 0m
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 0m
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 0m
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 0m
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 0m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 58¢ $17 0m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 58¢ $17 0m
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 0m
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 0m
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 0m
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 0m
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 0m
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 0m
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 0m
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 0m
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 0m
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1 0m
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $28 0m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $25 0m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $25 0m
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 0m
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 0m
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 0m
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 0m
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 0m
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 0m
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 0m
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 0m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)+46.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 +61.8% +46.4% 13% 13% -44.9%
≤30d 60 +61.8% +46.4% 13% 13% -44.9%
≤90d 60 +61.8% +46.4% 13% 13% -44.9%
all 60 +61.8% +46.4% 13% 13% -44.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3371.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +46.4% 13% -44.9%
10% ← realistic here +32.4% 13% -50.2%
15% +19.6% 13% -55.0%
20% +7.9% 12% -59.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,947.91 · official $2,960.45 (match) · 3500 history records