Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:43:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x590f…173e crypto 538 markets active 1h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$479 (-25%) realized −$494 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate15%76W / 447L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day12.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$57
7 days−$150
14 days−$196
30 days−$258
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$439
world 10% −$109
other 8% −$41
sports 3% +$8
politics 1% −$19
tech 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-41.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 126 -33.0% -39.3% 12% 12% -57.3%
≤30d 226 -39.3% -45.1% 15% 15% -52.2%
≤90d 226 -39.3% -45.1% 15% 15% -52.2%
all 523 -35.7% -41.8% 15% 14% -43.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.8% 14% -43.1%
10% -47.4% 14% -48.6%
15% -52.5% 13% -53.6%
20% -57.1% 12% -58.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -47% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$3 · ×3.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized−$494
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses76 / 447
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions11
Markets (closed)523 / 538
History coverage144d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day12.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 523 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 15¢ 94¢ $3 $19 +$16 (+533%)
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Spain 23¢ 20¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Yes 5¢ 8¢ $5 $8 +$2 (+50%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+29%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Uruguay 20¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Yes 23¢ 6¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-72%)
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Egypt 5¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 410 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 15 $5 −$2 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$7 +660%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$9 +625%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) BUY Uruguay 20¢ $5 36m
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 5¢ $1 36m
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 23¢ $10 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $2 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $6 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $4 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.67 · official $99.67 · 1895 history records