Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:10:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7.5
score
59 0x5910…b0d6 other 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this
Total PnL +$4,604 (+18%) realized +$5,937 · open −$1,333
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip
Net edge+21%after slip
Net WR68%break-even
Win rate71%24W / 10L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$582per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$144est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$1,697now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$629
7 days+$4,476
14 days+$4,536
30 days+$4,536
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% +$705
sports 31% +$2,497
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +68%
net ROI/market (all)+31.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +45.1% +31.3% 72% 69% +11.3%
≤30d 34 +44.9% +31.1% 71% 68% +10.5%
≤90d 34 +44.9% +31.1% 71% 68% +10.5%
all 34 +44.9% +31.1% 71% 68% +10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +31.1% 68% +10.5%
10% +18.5% 65% -0.1%
15% +7.1% 59% -9.7%
20% -3.4% 50% -18.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +45% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$1,009) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +80% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$472 vs −$678 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$1,697
Realized+$5,937
Unrealized−$1,333
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses24 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$144
Open positions6
Markets (closed)34 / 43
History coverage9d
Avg bet$582
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $800 $806 +$6 (+1%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 6¢ $1,380 $439 −$941 (-68%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 42¢ 57¢ $200 $271 +$71 (+36%)
Will Harry Kane win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $100 $110 +$10 (+10%)
Will Erling Haaland win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $100 $71 −$29 (-29%)
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Gentle Mates 80¢ 0¢ $450 $0 −$450 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Lilli Tag Jun 20 $101 +$95 +94%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $811 +$700 +86%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 20 $560 +$894 +160%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 20 $111 −$111 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $508 −$508 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $201 +$24 +12%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $2 +$4 +197%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,520 +$1,143 +75%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff Jun 19 $2 +$2 +86%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $5 +$3 +65%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 19 $509 −$509 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $608 −$608 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $1,021 −$1,021 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $604 +$175 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $607 +$346 +57%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,007 −$1,007 -100%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 18 $1,217 −$1,217 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,017 +$1,364 +134%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,009 +$420 +42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,010 +$461 +46%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,711 +$439 +26%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,214 −$1,214 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,010 +$505 +50%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $507 +$464 +92%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $307 +$942 +307%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $409 +$971 +238%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $511 +$1,275 +250%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $602 +$59 +10%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $708 +$386 +55%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $383 −$383 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $305 +$334 +109%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $102 +$223 +218%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $205 −$205 -100%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 12 $101 +$91 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $82 42m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 39¢ $1,018 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $808 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Lilli Tag BUY Anastasia Zakharova 51¢ $101 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $203 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Gentle Mates 69¢ $50 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Gentle Mates 82¢ $402 2h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 61¢ $405 2h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 47¢ $406 4h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 20¢ $51 4h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 42¢ $509 6h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1,330 7h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 33¢ $2 23h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff BUY Virtus.pro 53¢ $2 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 60¢ $5 23h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY INOX Division 42¢ $10 27h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 16¢ $31 28h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY INOX Division 62¢ $101 29h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo BUY Infinite 22¢ $102 30h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo BUY Infinite 41¢ $407 30h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $508 32h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $1,013 44h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end BUY 16¢ $410 47h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $201 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $506 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1,021 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $604 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $607 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $608 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $1,017 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,697.14 · official $2,697.18 · 87 history records