Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:06:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x5911…a4b5 sports 853 markets active 1h ago coverage 232d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$479 (-7%) realized −$478 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate42%355W / 483L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$36
14 days−$51
30 days−$196
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$125
other 20% −$272
crypto 5% −$82
world 1% −$16
politics 1% +$17
tech 1% −$52
finance 1% +$39
economics 0% −$2
culture 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 -8.4% -17.1% 42% 40% -15.5%
≤30d 160 -4.5% -13.6% 48% 45% -24.8%
≤90d 206 -11.7% -20.1% 43% 40% -34.1%
all 838 -6.3% -15.2% 42% 37% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 37% -16.9%
10% -23.4% 34% -24.9%
15% -30.8% 32% -32.1%
20% -37.6% 28% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$478
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses355 / 483
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions15
Markets (closed)838 / 853
History coverage232d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 838 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $11 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 48¢ 48¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Over 43¢ 42¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ 40¢ $4 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 49¢ 64¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+32%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $3 $3 −$1 (-17%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 48¢ 47¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 9¢ 14¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+61%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+32%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-64%)
Will Roger Federer play at Wimbledon? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $3 +$2 +90%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $3 +$2 +60%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 +$2 +70%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $22 −$22 -99%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $6 +$4 +79%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $6 −$2 -41%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$5 +105%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $3 +$2 +50%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $9 +$11 +134%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $4 +$6 +152%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 16 $20 −$1 -4%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $6 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $2 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $4 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $5 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $3 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $2 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $5 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 53¢ $5 21h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $2 22h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1 22h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $3 23h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Ghana 19¢ $4 24h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $6 24h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $5 24h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $3 24h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 62¢ $3 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 24h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $11 24h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $5 24h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 35¢ $4 34h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $3 35h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 63¢ $3 35h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Over 17¢ $2 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 46¢ $2 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 66¢ $3 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 42¢ $9 2d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 41¢ $4 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $6 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.45 · official $42.64 (match) · 2555 history records