Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:44:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x5912…6f45 sports 385 markets active 0h ago coverage 52d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 52d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (60 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$18,571 (+2%) realized +$18,570 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate99%380W / 4L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$2,692per market
Trades / day59.7pace
Fees−$540est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$1,591now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 52d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$7,424
other 11% +$465
crypto 2% +$132
world 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (60 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 +5.9% -4.2% 100% 3% -9.1%
≤30d 229 +2.7% -7.1% 100% 2% -9.1%
≤90d 384 +7.3% -2.9% 99% 3% -8.8%
all 384 +7.3% -2.9% 99% 3% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover59.7 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.9% 3% -8.8%
10% -12.2% 2% -17.6%
15% ← realistic here -20.7% 1% -25.5%
20% -28.5% 1% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$3,824) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +11% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$16 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×125.01 per $1 lost it wins $125.01
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$1,591
Realized+$18,570
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses380 / 4
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$540
Open positions1
Markets (closed)384 / 385
History coverage52d ⚠
Avg bet$2,692
Trades / day59.7
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 384 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Max Alcala Gurri Max Alcala Gurri 100¢ 100¢ $1,590 $1,591 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set Handicap: Bouzkova (-1.5) vs Maria (+1.5) Jun 19 $198 +$2 +1%
Marie Bouzkova vs. Tatjana Maria: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $9 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $2,810 +$31 +1%
England to win the second half? Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Croatia to score first vs. England? Jun 17 $4,166 +$13 +0%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $15 $0 +0%
England vs. Croatia: England 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $710 +$7 +1%
England vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $4 $0 +1%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $4,950 +$50 +1%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $1,642 +$5 +0%
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? Jun 17 $389 +$2 +0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $381 +$2 +0%
DR Congo to score first vs. Portugal? Jun 17 $4,348 +$18 +0%
DR Congo leading at halftime? Jun 17 $2,492 +$3 +0%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Federico Bondioli Jun 17 $482 $0 +0%
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 17 $1,980 +$20 +1%
Set 1 Winner: Tiafoe vs Shimabukuro Jun 17 $131 $0 +0%
Set 1 Winner: Pegula vs Siniakova Jun 17 $265 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $1,153 +$12 +1%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $3,960 +$40 +1%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $4,995 +$5 +0%
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 16 $19 $0 +0%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $13,583 +$29 +0%
France vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $11 $0 +1%
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Tomasz Berkieta Jun 16 $1,129 +$1 +0%
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 16 $2,983 +$3 +0%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $53 +$1 +1%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $344 +$3 +1%
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Elena Ruxandra Bertea Jun 16 $294 +$3 +1%
Poznan: Milos Karol vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Jun 16 $333 +$10 +3%
Set Handicap: Svitolina (-1.5) vs Kalinskaya (+1.5) Jun 16 $24 $0 +2%
Parma: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 16 $99 +$1 +1%
Set 1 Winner: Zverev vs Kopriva Jun 16 $64 $0 +0%
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Chris Rodesch Jun 16 $490 +$5 +1%
Parma: Miguel Damas vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 16 $622 +$1 +0%
Halle Open: Completed Match: Ben Shelton vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 16 $54 +$1 +1%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Renata Zarazua Jun 16 $14,874 +$26 +0%
Set 2 Winner: Bellucci vs Bublik Jun 16 $210 +$2 +1%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $320 +$3 +1%
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Andres Santamarta Jun 16 $241 +$1 +0%
Lajal vs. Blanchet: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $82 +$9 +11%
Set 1 Winner: Lajal vs Blanchet Jun 16 $409 +$11 +3%
Dublin: Mark Lajal vs Ugo Blanchet Jun 16 $2,450 +$50 +2%
Mark Lajal vs. Ugo Blanchet: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,002 +$29 +3%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang Jun 16 $986 +$10 +1%
Set 1 Winner: Khachanov vs Quinn Jun 16 $645 +$1 +0%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $1,980 +$20 +1%
HSBC Championships: Completed Match: Ignacio Buse vs Rafael Jodar Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Potapova (-1.5) vs Alexandrova (+1.5) Jun 15 $21 +$84 +392%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 14 $200 +$4 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Max Alcala Gurri BUY Max Alcala Gurri 100¢ $2 0m
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Max Alcala Gurri BUY Max Alcala Gurri 100¢ $5 3m
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Max Alcala Gurri BUY Max Alcala Gurri 100¢ $194 5m
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Max Alcala Gurri BUY Max Alcala Gurri 100¢ $64 6m
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Max Alcala Gurri BUY Max Alcala Gurri 100¢ $1 7m
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Max Alcala Gurri BUY Max Alcala Gurri 100¢ $1,074 7m
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Max Alcala Gurri BUY Max Alcala Gurri 100¢ $37 11m
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Max Alcala Gurri BUY Max Alcala Gurri 100¢ $115 11m
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Max Alcala Gurri BUY Max Alcala Gurri 100¢ $55 11m
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Max Alcala Gurri BUY Max Alcala Gurri 100¢ $12 11m
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Max Alcala Gurri BUY Max Alcala Gurri 100¢ $10 12m
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Max Alcala Gurri BUY Max Alcala Gurri 100¢ $16 12m
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Max Alcala Gurri BUY Max Alcala Gurri 100¢ $5 12m
Marie Bouzkova vs. Tatjana Maria: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 99¢ $4 1h
Marie Bouzkova vs. Tatjana Maria: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 99¢ $5 1h
Set Handicap: Bouzkova (-1.5) vs Maria (+1.5) BUY Bouzkova 99¢ $198 1h
England vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $4 39h
England to win the second half? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 39h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 100¢ $16 39h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 100¢ $23 39h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 99¢ $2,475 39h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 98¢ $295 39h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 39h
Croatia to score first vs. England? BUY No 100¢ $1,662 40h
England vs. Croatia: England 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $116 40h
England vs. Croatia: England 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $492 40h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 100¢ $14 40h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 100¢ $1 40h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 100¢ $217 40h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 100¢ $8 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,590.92 · official $1,590.92 (match) · 3500 history records