Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:39:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
59 0x5912…2fe0 sports 133 markets active 2h ago coverage 181d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$302 (+2%) realized +$308 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate53%70W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$494now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$15
crypto 16% +$617
politics 5% −$184
other 1% −$52
economics 1% −$71
culture 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 12 -82.4% -84.1% 8% 8% -26.6%
all 132 -5.0% -14.0% 53% 50% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 50% -7.6%
10% -22.2% 49% -16.4%
15% -29.8% 47% -24.5%
20% -36.6% 42% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$83 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

181d coverage
Net worth$494
Realized+$308
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses70 / 62
Open positions1
Markets (closed)132 / 133
History coverage181d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $500 $494 −$6 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? May 09 $800 +$885 +111%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 3? Apr 16 $77 −$77 -100%
Spread: Lafayette Leopards (-2.5) Apr 16 $200 −$200 -100%
Arizona Wildcats vs. UCF Knights: O/U 163.5 Apr 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Seahawks vs. Patriots: O/U 46.5 Apr 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Indiana Hoosiers (-1.5) Apr 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Seahawks vs. Patriots: O/U 42.5 Apr 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Loyola Maryland Greyhounds (-3.5) Apr 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 3? Apr 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Nicholls Colonels (-2.5) Apr 16 $200 −$200 -100%
Spread: North Carolina Tar Heels (-4.5) Apr 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 3? Apr 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the 2026 State of the Unio Feb 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump say "Epstein" during the 2026 State of the Union address? Feb 25 $100 −$78 -78%
Seahawks vs. Patriots: 1H Moneyline Feb 09 $100 +$54 +54%
1H Spread: Seahawks (-2.5) Feb 09 $100 +$79 +79%
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first? Feb 09 $300 +$7 +2%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 09 $100 +$48 +48%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 January 26-1? Jan 31 $100 +$187 +187%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 January 26-1? Jan 31 $100 +$80 +80%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 31 $100 −$100 -100%
UFC 324: Fugitt vs. Miller (Welterweight, Early Prelims) Jan 20 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $150k first? Jan 20 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $100k first? Jan 20 $304 −$124 -41%
Spread: Indiana (-7.5) Jan 20 $1,201 +$792 +66%
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026? Jan 20 $100 −$2 -2%
Spread: Howard Bison (-2.5) Jan 18 $100 +$56 +56%
Spread: South Dakota Coyotes (-1.5) Jan 18 $100 +$72 +72%
Florida Gators vs. Vanderbilt Commodores: O/U 160.5 Jan 18 $100 +$72 +72%
Wagner Seahawks vs. New Haven Chargers: O/U 128.5 Jan 18 $100 +$75 +75%
Spread: Mercyhurst Lakers (-4.5) Jan 18 $200 +$45 +22%
Spread: North Alabama Lions (-2.5) Jan 18 $200 +$80 +40%
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 680k+ BTC by January 31? Jan 13 $100 +$27 +27%
Spread: Texans (-3.5) Jan 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Penguins (-1.5) Jan 12 $20 +$8 +42%
Spread: Capitals (-1.5) Jan 12 $20 +$10 +52%
Spread: Patriots (-3.5) Jan 12 $100 +$69 +70%
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) Jan 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Panthers (-11.5) Jan 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Jets (-1.5) Jan 12 $20 +$9 +46%
Spread: Wichita State Shockers (-5.5) Jan 12 $100 +$75 +75%
Saint Joseph's Hawks vs. Richmond Spiders: O/U 150.5 Jan 11 $20 +$3 +14%
UAB Blazers vs. East Carolina Pirates: O/U 145.5 Jan 11 $100 +$60 +60%
Spread: Robert Morris Colonials (-5.5) Jan 11 $100 +$75 +75%
Quinnipiac Bobcats vs. Sacred Heart Pioneers: O/U 154.5 Jan 11 $100 +$75 +75%
Spread: Iowa Hawkeyes (-1.5) Jan 11 $100 +$75 +75%
Bills vs. Jaguars: O/U 48.5 Jan 11 $200 +$133 +67%
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-13.5) Jan 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Fresno State Bulldogs vs. San Diego State Aztecs: O/U 143.5 Jan 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Dartmouth Big Green vs. Cornell Big Red: O/U 176.5 Jan 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 82¢ $504 1h
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the 2026 State of the Unio SELL Yes $0 116d
Will Trump say "Epstein" during the 2026 State of the Union address? SELL Yes $22 116d
Will Trump say "Epstein" during the 2026 State of the Union address? BUY Yes 16¢ $100 116d
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the 2026 State of the Unio BUY Yes 29¢ $100 116d
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? BUY $80k 44¢ $500 127d
Seahawks vs. Patriots: O/U 42.5 BUY Over $100 132d
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? BUY $80k 56¢ $200 132d
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? BUY $80k 55¢ $100 132d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $148 132d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 3? BUY Yes $100 138d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 3? BUY Yes 22¢ $100 138d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 3? BUY Yes 65¢ $77 138d
Seahawks vs. Patriots: O/U 46.5 BUY Over 46¢ $100 138d
1H Spread: Seahawks (-2.5) BUY Seahawks 56¢ $100 138d
Seahawks vs. Patriots: 1H Moneyline BUY Seahawks 65¢ $100 138d
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first? BUY 70k 65¢ $200 138d
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first? BUY 90k 33¢ $100 139d
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 January 26-1? SELL Yes 71¢ $287 141d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 January 26-1? SELL Yes 100¢ $180 141d
US government shutdown Saturday? SELL No $0 141d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 January 26-1? BUY Yes 55¢ $100 142d
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 January 26-1? BUY Yes 25¢ $100 142d
US government shutdown Saturday? BUY No 44¢ $100 142d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $100 146d
UFC 324: Fugitt vs. Miller (Welterweight, Early Prelims) SELL Miller 76¢ $103 151d
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $150k first? SELL 150k 19¢ $104 151d
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $100k first? SELL 100k 38¢ $181 151d
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $98 152d
Spread: Indiana (-7.5) BUY Miami 75¢ $202 152d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $494.00 · official $494.00 (match) · 477 history records