Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:05:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x5913…3bbe other 1296 markets active 1h ago coverage 218d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 218d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,619 (-6%) realized −$5,630 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate51%648W / 632L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day14.9pace
Fees−$114est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$151
14 days−$62
30 days+$188
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$4,180
sports 33% −$172
world 0% −$5
crypto 0% −$98
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +3.2% -6.6% 56% 56% -2.8%
≤30d 52 -4.2% -13.3% 50% 46% -6.2%
≤90d 580 -7.3% -16.1% 50% 42% -12.1%
all 1280 -5.8% -14.8% 51% 44% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 44% -14.2%
10% -22.9% 35% -22.4%
15% -30.4% 26% -29.9%
20% -37.2% 18% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$36 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

218d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$5,630
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses648 / 632
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$114
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1280 / 1296
History coverage218d ⚠
Avg bet$67
Trades / day14.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1280 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 58¢ 78¢ $30 $41 +$11 (+35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $30 −$1 -3%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $228 −$128 -56%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $440 +$69 +16%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $340 −$86 -25%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 AND Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $20 +$13 +66%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $41 −$22 -55%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $152 +$77 +51%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $186 +$22 +12%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $10 +$4 +44%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $10 +$3 +31%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 AND Will United States win Jun 13 $11 +$14 +122%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 AND Will United States win on 2026 Jun 13 $6 +$6 +106%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $517 +$224 +43%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $61 −$40 -66%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $10 −$4 -35%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $102 −$30 -30%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $67 $0 -1%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $30 +$37 +122%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $132 −$102 -77%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $200 +$69 +35%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $50 +$4 +8%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 11 $40 +$6 +15%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) Jun 11 $30 +$13 +42%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $76 −$20 -26%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $147 −$145 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $39 −$39 -99%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $52 −$29 -57%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Gibraltar win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $30 +$12 +39%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $25 +$9 +36%
Will San Diego Wave FC win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $15 +$6 +38%
Will Poland win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Serbia win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $10 −$7 -71%
Will Czechia win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $50 +$37 +74%
Will Mexico win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $51 +$20 +39%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $215 +$104 +48%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $18 −$2 -12%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 31 $65 −$10 -16%
Will CSD Colo-Colo win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $15 +$19 +123%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $400 −$50 -12%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $324 +$132 +41%
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Cash/Tracy vs Droguet/Gaston May 29 $22 −$22 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $100 −$78 -78%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings May 29 $25 +$3 +12%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $11 −$1 -8%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-28? May 28 $1 $0 +8%
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-05-28? May 28 $149 +$68 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 71¢ $29 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $30 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 26¢ $100 5d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Australia (-1.5) BUY 73¢ $25 5d
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) AND Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 AN BUY 67¢ $10 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $25 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY 6¢ $10 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $18 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $54 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $152 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 95¢ $17 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 92¢ $50 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 88¢ $160 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $151 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 80¢ $278 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY 39¢ $26 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $202 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 24¢ $25 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 41¢ $44 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 21¢ $20 6d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 AND Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL 98¢ $34 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 22¢ $18 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 47¢ $41 6d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $228 6d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $152 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 47¢ $184 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.60 · official $40.60 (match) · 3500 history records