Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:03:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
59 0x5914…6ffb other 8 markets active 1d ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$137 (+0%) realized +$137 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%8W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$5,953per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$121
14 days+$136
30 days+$136
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% +$121
tech 30% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 8 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 8 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 8 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 0% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$17 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$137
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses8 / 0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage8d
Avg bet$5,953
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast's next video get between 53.5 and 54 million views on day Jun 19 $8,156 +$9 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 4 Jun 17 $1,526 +$2 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 47 and 48 million views on day 4 Jun 17 $8,172 +$8 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 35 million views on day 2? Jun 15 $772 +$1 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1? Jun 14 $14,498 +$102 +1%
Will SpaceX fail to complete an initial public offering by December 31 Jun 12 $1,434 +$1 +0%
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 12 $1,598 +$3 +0%
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $11,465 +$11 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MrBeast's next video get between 53.5 and 54 million views on day BUY No 100¢ $91 34h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 53.5 and 54 million views on day BUY No 100¢ $999 2d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 53.5 and 54 million views on day BUY No 100¢ $6,204 2d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 53.5 and 54 million views on day BUY No 100¢ $862 2d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 4 BUY No 100¢ $32 3d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 4 BUY No 100¢ $999 3d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 4 BUY No 100¢ $179 3d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 4 BUY No 100¢ $266 3d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 4 BUY No 100¢ $51 3d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 47 and 48 million views on day 4 BUY No 100¢ $1,998 4d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 47 and 48 million views on day 4 BUY No 100¢ $6,174 4d
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 35 million views on day 2? BUY No 100¢ $5 5d
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 35 million views on day 2? BUY No 100¢ $5 5d
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 35 million views on day 2? BUY No 100¢ $5 5d
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 35 million views on day 2? BUY No 100¢ $5 5d
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 35 million views on day 2? BUY No 100¢ $5 5d
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 35 million views on day 2? BUY No 100¢ $5 5d
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 35 million views on day 2? BUY No 100¢ $742 5d
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1? BUY No 99¢ $27 6d
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1? BUY No 99¢ $1,399 7d
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1? BUY No 99¢ $3,138 7d
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1? BUY No 99¢ $10 7d
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1? BUY No 99¢ $4,955 7d
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1? BUY No 99¢ $10 7d
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1? BUY No 99¢ $4,831 7d
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1? BUY No 99¢ $129 7d
Will SpaceX fail to complete an initial public offering by December 31 BUY No 100¢ $1,434 9d
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $11,465 9d
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,598 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 38 history records