Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:32:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x5916…7a17 sports 148 markets active 3d ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,119 (-69%) realized −$1,119 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate38%56W / 92L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$7
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$1,032
sports 30% −$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +38.6% +25.4% 30% 30% +7.8%
≤30d 28 -1.0% -10.4% 21% 21% -21.3%
≤90d 148 +12.3% +1.6% 38% 36% -71.8%
all 148 +12.3% +1.6% 38% 36% -71.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.6% 36% -71.8%
10% -8.1% 35% -74.5%
15% -17.0% 34% -77.0%
20% -25.1% 34% -79.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -69% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -69% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$15 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,119
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses56 / 92
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)148 / 148
History coverage69d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 148 Trades
no open positions (89 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Decatur: Madison Brengle vs Lea Ma Jun 14 $2 +$3 +165%
ITF Hurghada: Polina Iatcenko vs Martyna Kubka Jun 14 $2 +$4 +185%
ITF Nice: Clara Burel vs Jenny Lim Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
ITF Los Angeles: Alina Shcherbinina vs Kaitlyn Carnicella Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Tucuman: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Nicolas Kicker Jun 13 $2 +$4 +188%
Cattolica: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Francesco Forti Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Felix Balshaw Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Mikhail Kukushkin Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
ITF Curtea de Arges: Fadi Bidan vs Dragos Nicolae Cazacu Jun 12 $2 +$7 +325%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Carlos Giraldi vs Samuel Vincent Ruggeri Jun 12 $1 +$8 +712%
ITF Kayseri: Ivan Marrero Curbelo vs Rethin Pranav Senthil Kumar Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
ITF Kayseri: Harsshali Mandavkar vs Ui Su Jeong Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
ITF Kayseri: Rafael De Alba vs Maxwell Mckennon Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
ITF Kayseri: Defne Aydemir vs Ilay Yoruk Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - As Jun 11 $1 +$6 +596%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Bigetron by Vitality vs EVOS (BO5) - MPL Ind Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: FENNEL vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Masters Group B Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gaimin Gladiators vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 03 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 03 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs RUSTEC (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 03 $2 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Turma do Pagode vs Bounty Hunters Esports (BO3) - CCT May 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs BBL Esports (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Tricked vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group May 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Taylor Townsend vs Iva Jovic May 09 $2 −$2 -98%
AHL: Chicago Wolves vs. Texas Stars May 09 $2 +$2 +93%
KHL: Ak Bars Kazan vs. Metallurg Magnitogorsk May 09 $2 +$2 +97%
Will SK Poltava vs. FK Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih end in a draw? May 09 $2 +$6 +325%
Overwatch: ONSIDE Gaming vs T1 (BO4) - OCS Korea Stage 1 Playoffs May 01 $1 −$1 -98%
Overwatch: Falcons vs ZAN Esports (BO4) - OCS Korea Stage 1 Playoffs May 01 $1 −$1 -97%
T20 Series Germany vs Austria: Germany vs Austria May 01 $1 −$1 -98%
Mauthausen: Miguel Damas vs Mika Brunold May 01 $2 +$2 +101%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Doosan Bears May 01 $2 +$2 +105%
Ostrava: Zdenek Kolar vs Jonas Forejtek May 01 $2 +$2 +109%
KBO: LG Twins vs. KT Wiz May 01 $2 +$2 +109%
Valencia vs. Panathinaikos May 01 $2 +$2 +119%
La Bisbal: Xinyu Wang vs Alina Charaeva May 01 $2 +$3 +124%
Cagliari: Cristian Garin vs Nuno Borges May 01 $2 +$3 +124%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Hanwha Eagles May 01 $2 +$3 +124%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. NC Dinos May 01 $2 +$3 +124%
Shymkent 2: Dimitar Kuzmanov vs Buvaysar Gadamauri May 01 $2 +$3 +124%
Cagliari: Mariano Navone vs Matteo Berrettini May 01 $2 +$3 +129%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 01 $2 +$3 +134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Nice: Clara Burel vs Jenny Lim BUY Jenny Lim 21¢ $2 3d
ITF Hurghada: Polina Iatcenko vs Martyna Kubka BUY Polina Iatcenko 34¢ $2 3d
ITF Decatur: Madison Brengle vs Lea Ma BUY Lea Ma 37¢ $2 3d
ITF Los Angeles: Alina Shcherbinina vs Kaitlyn Carnicella BUY Kaitlyn Carnicella 29¢ $2 3d
Cattolica: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Francesco Forti BUY Francesco Forti 34¢ $1 4d
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Felix Balshaw BUY Daniel Galan 44¢ $2 4d
Tucuman: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Nicolas Kicker BUY Johan Alexander Rodriguez 34¢ $2 4d
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Mikhail Kukushkin BUY Mikhail Kukushkin 24¢ $1 4d
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler BUY Marc-Andrea Huesler 31¢ $2 4d
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Serie BUY GenOne 36¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY B8 35¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 39¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY G2 Ares 34¢ $2 5d
ITF Kayseri: Ivan Marrero Curbelo vs Rethin Pranav Senthil Kumar BUY Rethin Pranav Senthil Kumar 26¢ $2 6d
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Carlos Giraldi vs Samuel Vincent Ruggeri BUY Carlos Giraldi 12¢ $1 6d
ITF Kayseri: Harsshali Mandavkar vs Ui Su Jeong BUY Harsshali Mandavkar $1 6d
ITF Kayseri: Rafael De Alba vs Maxwell Mckennon BUY Rafael De Alba 15¢ $1 6d
ITF Kayseri: Defne Aydemir vs Ilay Yoruk BUY Defne Aydemir 21¢ $2 6d
ITF Curtea de Arges: Fadi Bidan vs Dragos Nicolae Cazacu BUY Fadi Bidan 23¢ $2 6d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Bigetron by Vitality vs EVOS (BO5) - MPL Ind BUY EVOS 51¢ $2 7d
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter BUY InterActive Philippines 43¢ $1 7d
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - As BUY CTBC Flying Oyster Academy 14¢ $1 7d
LoL: FENNEL vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Masters Group B BUY FENNEL $1 7d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY M80 41¢ $2 13d
Counter-Strike: Gaimin Gladiators vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Gaimin Gladiators 18¢ $1 13d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY GamerLegion 46¢ $2 13d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY Sinners 48¢ $2 13d
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs RUSTEC (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series BUY RUSTEC 29¢ $2 13d
Counter-Strike: Turma do Pagode vs Bounty Hunters Esports (BO3) - CCT BUY Bounty Hunters Esports 44¢ $2 38d
Valorant: Team Heretics vs BBL Esports (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs BUY BBL Esports 39¢ $2 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 207 history records