Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:50:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x591b…d24d crypto 513 markets active 0h ago coverage 41d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 41d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (74 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$166 (-1%) realized −$168 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate45%408W / 498L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day74.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 41d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$680
sports 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (74 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-50.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 421 -94.0% -94.6% 5% 2% -80.6%
≤30d 421 -94.0% -94.6% 5% 2% -80.6%
≤90d 906 -45.2% -50.4% 45% 20% -20.5%
all 906 -45.2% -50.4% 45% 20% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover74.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -50.4% 20% -20.5%
10% ← realistic here -55.2% 9% -28.1%
15% -59.5% 3% -35.0%
20% -63.5% 1% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -88% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$9 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$168
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses408 / 498
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)906 / 513
History coverage41d ⚠
Avg bet$44
Trades / day74.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 906 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Down 76¢ 86¢ $12 $14 +$2 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 450 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 19, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 28, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 23, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 1, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 24, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 47m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.66 · official $6.27 · 3500 history records