Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T06:50:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x591b…54e7 crypto 418 markets active 1h ago coverage 754d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-0%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate50%205W / 207L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$86now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$3
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$17
other 12% −$4
finance 4% $0
tech 3% $0
politics 2% −$1
world 0% $0
sports 0% $0
culture 0% $0
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -5.3% -14.3% 29% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 55 -3.0% -12.3% 33% 4% -9.8%
≤90d 139 -2.2% -11.5% 33% 4% -9.7%
all 412 -2.2% -11.5% 50% 13% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 13% -9.7%
10% -20.0% 8% -18.3%
15% -27.7% 3% -26.2%
20% -34.8% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

754d coverage
Net worth$86
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses205 / 207
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)412 / 418
History coverage754d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 412 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $80 $80 −$0 (-0%)
Les Wexner charged by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 92¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
GTA 6 launch postponed again? No 93¢ 92¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Iraq finish last in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 93¢ 92¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? Jun 26 $30 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? Jun 26 $100 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Jun 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June? Jun 25 $60 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June? Jun 25 $65 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $160 in June? Jun 24 $156 $0 -0%
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA Wor Jun 24 $1 $0 +6%
Will Panama win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $3 $0 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 23 $7 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 23 $13 $0 -3%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 23 $1 $0 +3%
Will Iraq win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $2 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? Jun 23 $228 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $150 in June? Jun 21 $129 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? Jun 19 $299 −$1 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +12%
XRP Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +5%
Will Jordan win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $2 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Japanese parliament dissolved in 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 -2%
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? Jun 16 $10 $0 -0%
China x Japan military clash before 2027? Jun 16 $2 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Will XRP reach $2.60 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $4 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? Jun 13 $30 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $236 −$1 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Jun 11 $159 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -63%
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? Jun 11 $129 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 10 $1 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? Jun 10 $30 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 06 $100 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $1 $0 +19%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $1 $0 -6%
Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond? Jun 05 $7 $0 +0%
Tom Holland announced as next James Bond? Jun 05 $2 $0 -1%
Pierce Brosnan announced as next James Bond? Jun 05 $5 $0 -0%
Will Diana Shnaider win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 04 $1 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 03 $0 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $342 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $404 $0 -0%
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? Jun 01 $5 −$2 -44%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? Jun 01 $4 $0 +0%
Epstein confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31? May 30 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? May 30 $50 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? May 30 $70 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Les Wexner charged by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $2 1h
GTA 6 launch postponed again? BUY No 93¢ $1 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $80 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $30 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 93¢ $1 23h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $30 23h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $100 23h
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? SELL No 98¢ $3 23h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $60 23h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $65 23h
Will Iraq finish last in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stag BUY Yes 93¢ $1 47h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $65 47h
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? BUY No 96¢ $3 47h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $60 47h
Will Solana reach $160 in June? SELL No 100¢ $130 47h
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA Wor BUY No 94¢ $1 3d
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $1 3d
Will Panama win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $1 3d
Will Solana reach $160 in June? BUY No 100¢ $130 3d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $1 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $1 3d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $1 3d
Will Iraq win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $2 3d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $110 3d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $110 5d
Will Solana reach $150 in June? SELL No 100¢ $129 5d
Will Solana reach $150 in June? BUY No 100¢ $129 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.91 · official $85.91 (match) · 1083 history records