Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:51:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
59 0x591b…8410 crypto 165 markets active 1h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$613 (+13%) realized +$612 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%68W / 89L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$141now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$280
7 days+$292
14 days+$632
30 days+$797
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 46% −$38
sports 37% +$487
other 11% −$15
politics 6% +$64
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +10.2% -0.3% 48% 46% +10.2%
≤30d 130 +2.4% -7.3% 46% 44% +12.1%
≤90d 157 -5.8% -14.8% 43% 41% +0.8%
all 157 -5.8% -14.8% 43% 41% +0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 41% +0.8%
10% -23.0% 36% -8.8%
15% -30.4% 34% -17.6%
20% -37.2% 29% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$18 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$141
Realized+$612
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses68 / 89
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions8
Markets (closed)157 / 165
History coverage74d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 157 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+30%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 9z 40¢ 40¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 36¢ 36¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BetBoom Team 45¢ 42¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 69 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$6 +30%
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $10 −$2 -20%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $51 +$194 +378%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $77 +$69 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $72 +$36 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $40 −$20 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$31 +59%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $33 −$33 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $71 +$19 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$9 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $23 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$24 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$48 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$12 +113%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $10 +$17 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$18 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $47 +$8 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $22 −$21 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $37 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $68 −$6 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $36 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 14 $52 −$50 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$54 +265%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $56 +$116 +207%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 11 $69 −$68 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $55 +$8 +15%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $33 +$19 +57%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 38m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 45m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 36¢ $10 50m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 40¢ $10 51m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $10 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 1h
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $8 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 100¢ $245 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $77 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $31 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $21 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $31 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $21 3h
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) SELL Sweden 99¢ $23 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $31 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $140.93 · official $140.93 (match) · 368 history records