Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:57:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x591c…b8d1 politics 35 markets active 0h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%1W / 34L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$491per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 36% −$5
other 21% −$4
tech 15% −$2
world 14% −$1
culture 7% −$2
economics 6% −$1
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 35 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 35 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$931) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses1 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage79d
Avg bet$491
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June? Jun 19 $39 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $45 $0 -0%
Will Massoud Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 19 $1,268 $0 +0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $1,216 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $57 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? Jun 18 $38 $0 -0%
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $1,251 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $1,179 −$2 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 17 $1,315 −$1 -0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $68 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 17 $1,199 $0 -0%
Will Alex Michelsen be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 17 $1,207 −$1 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 17 $51 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $30 $0 -0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Apr 17 $53 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $926 −$1 -0%
Will Daniel Quintero win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian president Apr 17 $917 −$1 -0%
Will Ed Davey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 Apr 16 $910 −$1 -0%
Will Sadegh Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Apr 16 $884 −$1 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $57 $0 -0%
USD.AI FDV above $3B one day after launch? Apr 16 $15 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 16 $929 −$1 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 14 $41 $0 -0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Japan? Apr 14 $934 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $931 −$1 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 14 $931 −$1 -0%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 08 $162 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $29 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 08 $17 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 05 $167 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 05 $26 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 05 $84 $0 -0%
Will Israel strike 14 countries in 2026? Apr 01 $145 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 01 $25 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 01 $47 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $39 9m
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $45 18m
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $13 24m
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $16 43m
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $16 59m
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $968 1h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $246 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $39 1h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,216 1h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $57 25h
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? SELL No 99¢ $38 25h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $15 25h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $12 25h
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 26h
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $189 26h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $30 26h
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? BUY No 100¢ $20 27h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $906 27h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $272 27h
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? BUY No 100¢ $18 27h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,179 27h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,314 46h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $68 47h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $16 47h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,278 47h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $26 47h
Will Moonshot have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 47h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $26 47h
Will Moonshot have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $149 47h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $16 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 109 history records