Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:43:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

59
0x5921…f55a
other · 138 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$57 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$72 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$51
Realized−$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses20 / 116
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)136 / 138
History coverage103d
Avg bet$155
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%
Chart Positions 1 History 136 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$12
14 days−$22
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $51 $51 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 14 $61 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 13 $354 −$3 -1%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $41 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $117 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $470 +$1 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 12 $61 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $106 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 12 $121 −$1 -1%
Will Bart Verbruggen record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Wor Jun 11 $41 −$2 -5%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $43 +$1 +2%
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 11 $44 −$1 -2%
Will Netherlands score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $45 $0 -1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $61 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 10 $63 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $55 −$1 -1%
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 Jun 10 $46 −$1 -2%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 09 $117 −$2 -2%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $270 −$1 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 07 $107 −$1 -1%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 07 $92 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $54 −$1 -1%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 06 $58 −$1 -2%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $75 −$1 -1%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $42 $0 -0%
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $29 $0 -1%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $37 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $285 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $112 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 03 $47 −$1 -1%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $58 $0 -0%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $54 −$1 -2%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 02 $49 −$1 -2%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 02 $44 $0 -1%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $58 $0 -1%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $44 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $291 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $277 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $286 −$1 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $48 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $46 $0 -1%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $39 −$1 -2%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? May 29 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 28 $52 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $149 −$1 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? May 27 $62 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 27 $128 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 21 $60 −$1 -2%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 21 $56 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 29% −$16
politics 26% −$19
sports 20% −$14
world 9% −$6
crypto 5% −$4
culture 4% −$3
economics 4% $0
finance 2% −$9
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $51 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL No 94¢ $60 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? BUY No 94¢ $61 9h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $53 10h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $38 16h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $15 16h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $41 16h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $41 25h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $55 25h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $55 33h
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 89¢ $26 34h
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 90¢ $27 41h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 94¢ $60 41h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 94¢ $61 2d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $60 2d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $60 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 95¢ $63 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $64 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 94¢ $57 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $57 2d
Will Bart Verbruggen record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Wor SELL No 93¢ $39 2d
Will Bart Verbruggen record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Wor BUY No 98¢ $41 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 97¢ $44 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 95¢ $43 3d
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL Yes 90¢ $43 3d
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 91¢ $44 3d
Will Netherlands score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $45 3d
Will Netherlands score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $45 3d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $61 3d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $61 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -0.8% -10.2% 11% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 61 -0.7% -10.1% 3% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 115 -0.5% -10.0% 11% 0% -9.9%
all 136 -0.4% -9.9% 15% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.37 · official $51.37 (match) · 503 history records