Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:14:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x5922…3388 sports 245 markets active 0h ago coverage 45d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 44d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (72 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4,492 (+0%) realized +$4,109 · open +$383
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate67%161W / 79L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$7,845per market
Trades / day71.7pace
Fees−$1,148est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$17,188now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 45d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$7,947
other 10% +$169
economics 2% +$130
crypto 2% +$89
tech 0% +$5
finance 0% +$2
politics 0% +$1
world 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (72 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 -51.9% -56.4% 23% 7% -9.2%
≤30d 169 -13.4% -21.6% 54% 8% -9.1%
≤90d 240 -2.8% -12.1% 67% 8% -9.1%
all 240 -2.8% -12.1% 67% 8% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover71.7 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 8% -9.1%
10% -20.5% 7% -17.8%
15% ← realistic here -28.2% 6% -25.8%
20% -35.2% 6% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$8,412) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +25% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
11.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$4 · ×14.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×33.6 per $1 lost it wins $33.6
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$17,188
Realized+$4,109
Unrealized+$383
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses161 / 79
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$1,148
Open positions5
Markets (closed)240 / 245
History coverage45d ⚠
Avg bet$7,845
Trades / day71.7
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 240 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $7,492 $7,522 +$30 (+0%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Boston Red Sox 42¢ 46¢ $4,560 $4,918 +$358 (+8%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 47¢ 46¢ $4,746 $4,740 −$6 (-0%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 63¢ 91¢ $3 $5 +$1 (+44%)
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs FURIA (+3.5) Team Falcons 34¢ 32¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 20 $28 +$28 +100%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5) Jun 20 $36 −$3 -9%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: paiN (-3.5) vs TYLOO (+3.5) Jun 19 $125 +$8 +6%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Gen.G Esports - Map 4 Winner Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-3.5) vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (+ Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Virtus.pro vs Verso Time - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers - Game 2 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs BC.Game Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Barça eSports vs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 3 Winner Jun 19 $5 +$1 +27%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 19 $14 −$14 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs GamerLegion (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A Jun 19 $14 −$14 -100%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs fnatic (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A Jun 19 $18 −$18 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs ex-HEROIC (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Execration - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 19 $14 −$14 -100%
Valorant: Fnatic vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-3.5) vs Johnny Speeds (+3.5) Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: KOLESIE (-6.5) vs Lazer Cats (+6.5) Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: ex-RUBY (-3.5) vs RUSTEC (+3.5) Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: against All authority (-3.5) vs RUSTEC (+3.5) Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Selangor Red Giants vs Team Vamos - Game 4 W Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs ex-HEROIC - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $3 −$2 -67%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 19 $19 $0 -2%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) Jun 19 $3 $0 -2%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) Jun 19 $510 $0 +0%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-2.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+2.5) Jun 19 $3 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $50 2m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 3m
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs FURIA (+3.5) BUY Team Falcons 34¢ $3 4m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $49 7m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $50 7m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 8m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $15 9m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $15 11m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $22 11m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 12m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $30 18m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $30 22m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $13 23m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $43 23m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 26m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 31m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 32m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $37 32m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 35m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 39m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $12 39m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 40m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $50 42m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $204 45m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $25 48m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $10 51m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 52m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 53m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $100 55m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $10 57m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17,187.56 · official $17,186.04 (match) · 3500 history records