Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:41:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x5923…49cd world 195 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (73 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,281 (+5%) realized +$1,351 · open −$70
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate62%30W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$144per market
Trades / day73.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$19,598now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days+$210
14 days+$101
30 days+$101
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% −$26
other 20% −$11
politics 19% +$27
sports 1% +$35
finance 0% +$6
culture 0% $0
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (73 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +14.7% +3.8% 65% 21% +2.0%
≤30d 48 +3.9% -6.0% 62% 21% -5.1%
≤90d 48 +3.9% -6.0% 62% 21% -5.1%
all 48 +3.9% -6.0% 62% 21% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover73.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.0% 21% -5.1%
10% ← realistic here -15.0% 17% -14.2%
15% -23.2% 17% -22.5%
20% -30.7% 12% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$18 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$19,598
Realized+$1,351
Unrealized−$70
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses30 / 18
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions146
Markets (closed)48 / 195
History coverage12d
Avg bet$144
Trades / day73.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 146 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $2,326 $2,372 +$46 (+2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 35¢ 100¢ $543 $1,531 +$988 (+182%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $1,053 $1,047 −$6 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 89¢ $859 $860 +$0 (+0%)
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $753 $757 +$4 (+1%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $726 $723 −$3 (-0%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 84¢ 88¢ $633 $656 +$23 (+4%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 92¢ 99¢ $545 $586 +$41 (+8%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $503 $511 +$8 (+1%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 72¢ 72¢ $437 $435 −$2 (-1%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? No 85¢ 84¢ $434 $428 −$5 (-1%)
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? No 84¢ 84¢ $424 $424 −$0 (-0%)
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No 71¢ 55¢ $516 $395 −$120 (-23%)
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $366 $377 +$11 (+3%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $346 $344 −$2 (-1%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 94¢ 96¢ $332 $338 +$6 (+2%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? No 98¢ 97¢ $304 $302 −$3 (-1%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $296 $300 +$4 (+1%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 92¢ 84¢ $327 $299 −$28 (-8%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $288 $286 −$2 (-1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? No 80¢ 78¢ $248 $241 −$7 (-3%)
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $225 $226 +$1 (+0%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 93¢ 93¢ $202 $202 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? No 88¢ 88¢ $199 $198 −$1 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $152 $162 +$10 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $14 $0 +1%
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in 2026? Jun 17 $51 +$1 +2%
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30? Jun 17 $9 −$8 -85%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $207 +$1 +0%
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in June 2026? Jun 16 $64 +$3 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $171 +$5 +3%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 16 $62 +$4 +7%
Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni in June 2026? Jun 16 $7 $0 +4%
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 16 $148 −$22 -15%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2026 New York Governor Republican primary Jun 16 $11 $0 -0%
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? Jun 16 $12 −$6 -46%
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $44 −$10 -22%
Will Trump say "Fight" during UFC 250? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $32 +$57 +180%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $58 −$58 -99%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $31 +$12 +40%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $10 +$27 +257%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $96 +$135 +140%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $33 +$103 +314%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 14 $63 $0 -0%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $88 +$5 +5%
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $166 −$2 -1%
Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $27 $0 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 13 $3 +$1 +39%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $25 +$2 +7%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 13 $71 +$1 +1%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $84 +$3 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $43 −$37 -86%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $18 −$2 -9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 11 $48 −$7 -15%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $67 +$3 +4%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $17 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $13 +$8 +61%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $21 −$18 -87%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $51 +$6 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $68 −$5 -7%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 09 $74 −$24 -32%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $152 −$8 -5%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $40 +$32 +82%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $38 $0 +1%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $26 +$1 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $5 $0 +10%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 07 $175 +$8 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $9 −$9 -100%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $97 −$97 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $24 +$3 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $8 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $39 7m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $39 8m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $6 8m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 94¢ $39 10m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 94¢ $17 10m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $16 14m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $59 25m
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? SELL No 89¢ $16 46m
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $21 55m
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $32 55m
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $5 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $47 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $14 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $3 1h
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $21 2h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $35 2h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $35 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 46¢ $54 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 45¢ $1 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 45¢ $1 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 45¢ $6 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 45¢ $4 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 45¢ $40 3h
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 83¢ $4 3h
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? SELL No 88¢ $14 5h
Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $6 5h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 46¢ $4 5h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 46¢ $13 5h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 87¢ $5 5h
Iran coup attempt by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $14 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19,598.13 · official $19,596.75 (match) · 947 history records