Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:44:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
59 0x5923…026a other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$27 (+2%) realized +$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate100%17W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$2
politics 18% $0
crypto 13% +$23
tech 13% $0
finance 6% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 6 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 10 +5.5% -4.5% 100% 10% -6.7%
all 17 +3.4% -6.4% 100% 6% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 6% -7.4%
10% -15.4% 6% -16.3%
15% -23.6% 6% -24.4%
20% -31.1% 6% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses17 / 0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage125d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $70 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 16 $55 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast hit 494 million subscribers by June 30? Jun 16 $129 +$1 +1%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 30 $70 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 25 $69 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during events with Xi Jinping? May 22 $198 $0 +0%
Another crypto hack over $100m by December 31? May 04 $43 +$23 +53%
Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q1 2026 Apr 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 01 $61 $0 +0%
Crude Oil all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $65 +$1 +1%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Mar 04 $57 $0 +0%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Mar 02 $37 $0 +1%
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher world Feb 17 $67 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 20 Feb 15 $77 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at <$0 on the final day of trading of the w Feb 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will Claude 5 be released on February 11, 2026? Feb 13 $45 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on February 11? Feb 12 $33 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 100¢ $70 1h
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? BUY No 100¢ $70 22d
Will MrBeast hit 494 million subscribers by June 30? BUY Yes 99¢ $65 24d
Will MrBeast hit 494 million subscribers by June 30? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 24d
Will MrBeast hit 494 million subscribers by June 30? BUY Yes 99¢ $14 25d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $69 25d
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY No 100¢ $198 32d
Will Meta have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 43d
Another crypto hack over $100m by December 31? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 74d
Another crypto hack over $100m by December 31? BUY Yes 65¢ $28 74d
Another crypto hack over $100m by December 31? BUY Yes 65¢ $13 74d
Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q1 2026 BUY No 100¢ $30 76d
Crude Oil all time high by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $56 80d
Crude Oil all time high by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $10 80d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $61 93d
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY Yes 100¢ $3 106d
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY Yes 100¢ $2 106d
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY Yes 100¢ $42 106d
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY Yes 100¢ $10 106d
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 20 BUY No 100¢ $77 122d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on February 11? BUY Yes 99¢ $33 125d
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher world BUY No 100¢ $67 125d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at <$0 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 100¢ $2 125d
Will Claude 5 be released on February 11, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $45 125d
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? BUY No 99¢ $37 125d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 42 history records