Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:56:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x5923…df99 crypto 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$14 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate52%11W / 10L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day18.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% +$11
world 11% +$2
politics 9% +$2
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -3.8% -13.0% 52% 38% -4.5%
≤30d 21 -3.8% -13.0% 52% 38% -4.5%
≤90d 21 -3.8% -13.0% 52% 38% -4.5%
all 21 -3.8% -13.0% 52% 38% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 38% -4.5%
10% -21.3% 33% -13.6%
15% -28.9% 24% -22.0%
20% -35.9% 19% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$14
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses11 / 10
Open positions4
Markets (closed)21 / 25
History coverage6d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day18.3
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Up 58¢ 62¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+6%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Down 80¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+24%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Down 58¢ 38¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-34%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Down 59¢ 100¢ $1 $3 +$1 (+69%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 96¢ 97¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-99%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $17 −$10 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $18 −$6 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $55 +$11 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$6 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $51 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$18 +118%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $46 −$6 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$7 -34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $33 +$21 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$17 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$6 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$11 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $45 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 15 $32 +$2 +7%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 15 $3 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $54 +$2 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $6 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $6 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $6 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $6 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $6 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $6 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $6 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $6 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $4 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $6 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $6 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $6 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $6 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $6 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $6 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $6 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $6 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $6 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $6 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 25m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.38 · official $43.48 (match) · 133 history records