Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:37:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x5925…6cc4 weather 1498 markets active 2h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$90 (-1%) realized −$90 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate85%1275W / 223L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day25.7pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$10
14 days−$9
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% −$102
tech 0% −$9
other 0% −$10
crypto 0% −$3
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 97 -1.5% -10.8% 82% 3% -10.4%
≤30d 477 -0.3% -9.8% 80% 4% -9.4%
≤90d 1451 +0.3% -9.3% 86% 15% -10.2%
all 1498 -0.8% -10.3% 85% 15% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 15% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 5% -18.9%
15% -26.7% 2% -26.8%
20% -33.9% 1% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$90
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses1275 / 223
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1498 / 1498
History coverage106d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day25.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1498 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 18? Jun 18 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 18 Jun 18 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 18? Jun 18 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on June 18 Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 17? Jun 17 $3 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 17 Jun 17 $4 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 65°F or below on June Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -12%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 16 $5 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 16 $5 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 18 SELL No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on June 18 SELL No 99¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 18? SELL No 94¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $5 20h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on June 18 BUY No 99¢ $5 20h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $5 20h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 18 BUY No 98¢ $5 20h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $5 20h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $5 20h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $5 20h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $5 20h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 17? SELL No 98¢ $3 20h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $5 20h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $5 20h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $5 20h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $5 20h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $5 20h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 17? SELL No 98¢ $5 25h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 17? SELL No 90¢ $4 26h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 17? SELL No 96¢ $5 26h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $3 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3045 history records