Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:14:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
59 0x592c…4112 other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$8 (-18%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate73%8W / 3L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +14.3% +3.4% 73% 64% +28.8%
≤30d 11 +14.3% +3.4% 73% 64% +28.8%
≤90d 11 +14.3% +3.4% 73% 64% +28.8%
all 11 +14.3% +3.4% 73% 64% +28.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.4% 64% +28.8%
10% -6.5% 55% +16.5%
15% -15.5% 55% +5.3%
20% -23.8% 36% -5.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +42% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.37 per $1 lost it wins $2.37
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses8 / 3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)11 / 16
History coverage3d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $12 +$22 +178%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 $0 +49%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $2 +$1 +54%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2 $0 +12%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2 +$1 +65%
United States to win the second half? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $2 $0 +7%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $2 +$1 +53%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 +$1 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 99¢ $34 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 12h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 15h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 15h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 15h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 15h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 28h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 28h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 82¢ $8 29h
United States to win the second half? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 34h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $2 36h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 93¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? SELL Yes 99¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.49 · official $8.49 (match) · 25 history records