Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:53:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

59
0x592c…47d8
crypto · 804 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$680 -20%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$180 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$109
Realized−$180
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses509 / 280
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions15
Markets (closed)789 / 804
History coverage14d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day189.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 15 History 789 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$62
14 days−$180
30 days−$180
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 96¢ $53 $54 +$1 (+1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 47¢ 44¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Tucuman: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 89¢ 79¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-11%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Diane Parry 94¢ 92¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Atlanta Braves 47¢ 55¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan India 92¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 51¢ 52¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays New York Yankees 55¢ 55¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng Michael Zheng 82¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $17 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $14 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 -2%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 14 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $18 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Nottingham 2: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Mackenzie McDonald Jun 14 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 -1%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $17 $0 -2%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Taylah Preston Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Himeno Sakatsume vs Alicia Dudeney Jun 14 $12 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $9 $0 -0%
Ilkley: Jacob Fearnley vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $9 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -2%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +15%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Hannah Klugman Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +42%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 14 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +1%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $1 +$1 +76%
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Celine Naef Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $9 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $14 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 70% −$143
sports 24% −$30
other 5% −$16
world 0% +$7
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tucuman: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 90¢ $5 0m
Tucuman: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 89¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 29m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 480 -1.0% -10.5% 63% 26% -12.2%
≤30d 789 -3.1% -12.4% 65% 24% -14.4%
≤90d 789 -3.1% -12.4% 65% 24% -14.4%
all 789 -3.1% -12.4% 65% 24% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover189.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.4% 24% -14.4%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 15% -22.6%
15% -28.4% 10% -30.1%
20% -35.4% 6% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.63 · official $108.43 (match) · 3500 history records