Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:32:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x592d…20b7 sports 57 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized +$6 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate56%23W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day10.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$46
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$21
sports 43% +$1
crypto 8% −$35
world 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +11.4% +0.8% 68% 52% -0.2%
≤30d 41 -7.6% -16.4% 56% 44% -9.9%
≤90d 41 -7.6% -16.4% 56% 44% -9.9%
all 41 -7.6% -16.4% 56% 44% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 44% -9.9%
10% -24.4% 29% -18.5%
15% -31.7% 22% -26.4%
20% -38.4% 12% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized+$6
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses23 / 18
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions16
Markets (closed)41 / 57
History coverage10d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 82¢ 82¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? No 82¢ 81¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 66¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+2%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Panna Udvardy vs Anna Bondar Panna Udvardy 74¢ 100¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+35%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Justina Mikulskyte vs Carol Zhao Justina Mikulskyte 82¢ 84¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Varvara Lepchenko vs Anastasia Gasanova Varvara Lepchenko 41¢ 74¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+82%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Darja Semenistaja vs Anna Siskova Darja Semenistaja 62¢ 43¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-31%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Polina Kudermetova vs Jessika Ponchet Jessika Ponchet 41¢ 70¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+72%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Gabriela Knutson Gabriela Knutson 27¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-28%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Luisina Giovannini vs Lucrezia Stefanini Luisina Giovannini 33¢ 14¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-59%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Priscilla Hon vs Nao Hibino Priscilla Hon 25¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-91%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Fiona Crawley vs Himeno Sakatsume Himeno Sakatsume 69¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maddison Inglis vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 23 $18 +$1 +4%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Sayaka Ishii Jun 23 $13 +$1 +5%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Sara Bejlek vs Laura Siegemund Jun 23 $2 +$4 +190%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Janice Tjen vs Caty McNally Jun 23 $29 −$2 -6%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Celine Naef vs Joanna Garland Jun 23 $25 +$2 +8%
Bad Homburg Open: Ann Li vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 23 $6 +$1 +22%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Tyra Caterina Grant vs Taylah Preston Jun 23 $13 +$2 +17%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $13 $0 -1%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Noma Noha Akugue vs Lisa Pigato Jun 23 $4 −$4 -98%
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro Jun 23 $11 +$2 +14%
Plovdiv: Eero Vasa vs Manoj Dhamne Manas Jun 23 $16 −$5 -32%
Plovdiv: Geoffrey Blancaneaux vs Tomasz Berkieta Jun 23 $7 +$2 +28%
Targu Mures: Michele Ribecai vs Niels McDonald Jun 23 $3 −$2 -62%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 $0 +1%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$2 +17%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $11 +$1 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $15 +$9 +58%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 +$7 +48%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $29 −$1 -2%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 +$13 +52%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$9 +45%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $22 +$13 +57%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $22 +$11 +48%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $38 +$8 +21%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $27 −$27 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +44%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 $0 -5%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6 +$4 +67%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 $0 -8%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $15 +$2 +12%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $25 +$6 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Polina Kudermetova vs Jessika Ponchet BUY Jessika Ponchet 41¢ $1 26m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Gabriela Knutson BUY Gabriela Knutson 27¢ $1 27m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Priscilla Hon vs Nao Hibino BUY Priscilla Hon 25¢ $1 28m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Darja Semenistaja vs Anna Siskova BUY Darja Semenistaja 62¢ $3 28m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Varvara Lepchenko vs Anastasia Gasanova BUY Varvara Lepchenko 41¢ $2 28m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Panna Udvardy vs Anna Bondar BUY Panna Udvardy 74¢ $5 29m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Justina Mikulskyte vs Carol Zhao BUY Justina Mikulskyte 82¢ $5 29m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Luisina Giovannini vs Lucrezia Stefanini BUY Luisina Giovannini 33¢ $1 30m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maddison Inglis vs Lucia Bronzetti SELL Lucia Bronzetti 100¢ $19 35m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maddison Inglis vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Lucia Bronzetti 96¢ $18 43m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Sayaka Ishii SELL Kaitlin Quevedo 94¢ $14 45m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Sara Bejlek vs Laura Siegemund SELL Sara Bejlek 60¢ $6 46m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Sara Bejlek vs Laura Siegemund BUY Sara Bejlek 20¢ $2 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Sayaka Ishii BUY Kaitlin Quevedo 89¢ $13 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Janice Tjen vs Caty McNally SELL Janice Tjen 8¢ $0 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Janice Tjen vs Caty McNally BUY Janice Tjen 16¢ $1 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Fiona Crawley vs Himeno Sakatsume BUY Himeno Sakatsume 69¢ $10 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Fiona Crawley vs Himeno Sakatsume SELL Himeno Sakatsume 62¢ $9 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Fiona Crawley vs Himeno Sakatsume BUY Himeno Sakatsume 69¢ $10 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Janice Tjen vs Caty McNally SELL Caty McNally 90¢ $27 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Janice Tjen vs Caty McNally BUY Caty McNally 94¢ $28 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Celine Naef vs Joanna Garland SELL Joanna Garland 100¢ $27 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Celine Naef vs Joanna Garland BUY Joanna Garland 92¢ $25 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Fiona Crawley vs Himeno Sakatsume SELL Himeno Sakatsume 96¢ $3 2h
Bad Homburg Open: Ann Li vs Ekaterina Alexandrova SELL Ekaterina Alexandrova 100¢ $7 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Tyra Caterina Grant vs Taylah Preston SELL Tyra Caterina Grant 100¢ $15 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Tyra Caterina Grant vs Taylah Preston BUY Tyra Caterina Grant 85¢ $13 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 85¢ $13 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Fiona Crawley vs Himeno Sakatsume BUY Himeno Sakatsume 57¢ $2 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Fiona Crawley vs Himeno Sakatsume SELL Fiona Crawley 40¢ $2 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.43 · official $78.43 (match) · 114 history records