Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:56:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
59 0x592d…4b16 weather 129 markets active 1h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,474 (+3%) realized +$1,474 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate97%125W / 4L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$456per market
Trades / day17.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$62
7 days+$199
14 days+$77
30 days+$1,043
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$1,457
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +4.4% -5.5% 100% 12% -7.6%
≤30d 97 +1.7% -8.0% 97% 6% -7.4%
≤90d 129 +1.9% -7.8% 97% 5% -7.3%
all 129 +1.9% -7.8% 97% 5% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 5% -7.3%
10% -16.6% 5% -16.2%
15% -24.7% 2% -24.3%
20% -32.1% 1% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$738) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$94 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×6.18 per $1 lost it wins $6.18
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,474
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses125 / 4
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)129 / 129
History coverage42d
Avg bet$456
Trades / day17.7
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 129 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1,001 +$9 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $154 +$49 +32%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 18? Jun 18 $106 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 17? Jun 16 $307 +$3 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 16? Jun 15 $201 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $688 +$7 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? Jun 14 $517 +$9 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $989 +$21 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $849 +$8 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $639 +$6 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $738 +$7 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1,001 +$9 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $165 +$38 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $201 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $990 +$20 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1,001 +$9 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 10? Jun 10 $201 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 10? Jun 09 $201 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $996 +$14 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $34 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 7? Jun 09 $144 −$144 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 7? Jun 09 $137 −$137 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 9? Jun 08 $197 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $944 +$66 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 8? Jun 08 $195 +$7 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 8? Jun 07 $1,001 +$9 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 8? Jun 07 $855 +$8 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 8? Jun 07 $1,001 +$9 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 7? Jun 07 $162 −$1 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 7? Jun 07 $201 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 7? Jun 07 $158 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 7? Jun 07 $201 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 7? Jun 07 $198 +$5 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 7? Jun 06 $26 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 6? Jun 06 $6 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 5? Jun 05 $188 +$14 +8%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 5? Jun 05 $776 +$7 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 5? Jun 05 $201 +$2 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 5? Jun 05 $201 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 4? Jun 04 $161 +$40 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 4? Jun 04 $146 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 4? Jun 04 $1,000 +$10 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 4? Jun 04 $199 +$4 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 4? Jun 03 $843 +$167 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 4? Jun 03 $201 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 3? Jun 03 $197 +$6 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 3? Jun 03 $864 +$44 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 3? Jun 03 $901 +$8 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 3? Jun 03 $901 +$9 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 3? Jun 03 $201 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $311 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $203 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 18? BUY No 75¢ $154 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $699 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $107 6h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $106 7h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $309 7h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $692 7h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $310 38h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $307 38h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $96 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $10 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $10 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $10 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $10 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $5 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $10 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $10 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $10 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $10 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $10 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $5 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $7 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $201 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $28 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $27 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $52 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $584 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 779 history records