Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:01:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
59 0x5933…ecb7 other 76 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,025 (+13%) realized +$1,148 · open −$123
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%10W / 25L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day55.6pace
Fees−$129est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$4,281now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$711
other 19% −$158
crypto 6% +$227
world 2% −$83
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +19.5% +8.2% 29% 29% +10.8%
≤30d 35 +19.5% +8.2% 29% 29% +10.8%
≤90d 35 +19.5% +8.2% 29% 29% +10.8%
all 35 +19.5% +8.2% 29% 29% +10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.2% 29% +10.8%
10% ← realistic here -2.2% 29% +0.2%
15% -11.6% 29% -9.5%
20% -20.3% 29% -18.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +28% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$195 vs −$45 · ×4.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$4,281
Realized+$1,148
Unrealized−$123
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses10 / 25
Est. fees paid−$129
Open positions41
Markets (closed)35 / 76
History coverage2d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day55.6
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 41 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 56¢ 56¢ $500 $504 +$4 (+1%)
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ 40¢ $500 $494 −$6 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 48¢ $500 $485 −$15 (-3%)
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Yes 57¢ 54¢ $400 $377 −$23 (-6%)
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Over 64¢ 66¢ $350 $365 +$15 (+4%)
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 48¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $118 $120 +$2 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $105 $104 −$1 (-1%)
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Yes 54¢ 54¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Bosnia & Herzegovina be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $99 $99 −$0 (-0%)
Jordan vs. Algeria: Neither team to score first? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $100 $83 −$17 (-17%)
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $75 $74 −$1 (-2%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $69 $67 −$2 (-3%)
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 5¢ 7¢ $50 $66 +$16 (+31%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $63 $63 −$0 (-0%)
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 36¢ $50 $59 +$9 (+18%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $75 $59 −$16 (-22%)
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 45¢ 46¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 47¢ 48¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 49¢ 50¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 13¢ 6¢ $100 $50 −$50 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $6 +$94 +1653%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 22 $41 −$41 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $47 −$46 -98%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $508 +$466 +92%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $102 +$47 +46%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 22 $16 −$16 -98%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 22 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $767 +$523 +68%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 21 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 21 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $102 +$160 +156%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $297 −$250 -84%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $20 +$15 +76%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $183 −$80 -44%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $76 +$52 +68%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 21 $51 −$6 -12%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Neither team to score first? Jun 21 $29 +$149 +517%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $30 −$1 -4%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $41 −$11 -26%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $201 −$191 -95%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $304 +$213 +70%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $202 −$202 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $405 +$228 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 1h
Will Bosnia & Herzegovina be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the Worl BUY Yes 49¢ $102 1h
Will Belgium be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $23 2h
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $51 6h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 32¢ $26 6h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 6h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $65 6h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $101 6h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $121 6h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $57 6h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 6h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $51 7h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 17¢ $26 7h
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 49¢ $51 7h
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 33¢ $51 7h
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 7h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 7h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 38¢ $25 7h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada O/U 1.5 BUY Over 32¢ $26 7h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $101 7h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 7h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $555 7h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 50¢ $147 7h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 76¢ $419 8h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $33 8h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 13¢ $40 8h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $25 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,280.61 · official $4,281.39 (match) · 127 history records